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Message: Re: Big Deal-Good Discussion
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Oct 31, 2011 09:01PM
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Nov 01, 2011 03:25AM
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Nov 01, 2011 11:53AM
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Nov 01, 2011 05:24PM
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Nov 02, 2011 12:01AM
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Nov 02, 2011 03:50AM
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Nov 02, 2011 07:08AM

LT, I like your positive attitude: "They will be back" at the end. Just wanted to modify it a touch to portray CLF tough guy image at the end of that "rumoured talk" between CLF and DP. Picture CLF in Arnold Shwartzenegger - the Terminator's voice: "I'll be back!".

My bet on this is that CLF wants that piece of real estate (location, location, location) so bad that "it will be back". Reasons?

- CLF is totally boxed in. It would need access (escape, if you prefer) routes from their decoy Black Thor site. CLF is not dumb, since who would want to mine the non-DSO stuff first (BD and BC are DSO quality...oh yah, CLF and KWG is jointly doing a bulk sampling of BD for a potential open pit...Black Thor is a decoy!) while waiting for all the government and non-government interest groups to make some kind of committment. Ontario is certainly not Quebec where some $80 B (yes it's the B) has been planned for supporting the mining industry in their North. So while waiting for Ontario (the Fed is probably more supportive on this) to unfold itself, a good plan would be to follow NOT example, i.e. proceed with ice roads, pipeline, diesel generators, stockpiling, etc...with the assumption of little support from governments. NOT is sitting pretty, it has Baosteel as a protector and deep-pocket partner, and not being "boxed in" like CLF.

- Even though Baosteel is interested in the Nickel and quite a bit of precious stuff in the Eagle area, it would not mind having the high quality (DSO) chromite as well, since their name says it all. So, there is a little race between NOT and CLF. One way to get some advantage over CLF is to get that piece of real estate back from PRB (cash or share exchange if PRB does not need the cash) just to box CLF in (also a good way to slow your competitor down). This is part of the negotiation tactics, but in the end they will kiss and make up anyway. It's all about $$$ in this business.

Another eascape route for CLF would be through (the dirt cheap) FNC. NOT, or should I say Baosteel, is salivating. Reminder, FNC has 17% of the Fe CHM has, plus its own stuff in Quebec. Most likely, NOT will go for the FNC real estate in RoF to get some elbow room, and possible extension of their "nest"...and of course, to box CLF in (not a nice thing to do, but if you have to...). On the other hand, CLF may want to frustrate NOT by taking down FNC RoF property first. This would restrict NOT elbow room and the potential of expanding Eagle Nest deposit. Let's see who is faster.

- buffer zone (of 60m?) from the property lines between CLF/KWG BD and BC of PRB: In addition to the access roads, 60m worth of ore, on both sides, would account for a lot (120m) of ore. Can someone verify this?

My bet: "Arnold will be back" very very soon for the TO of PRB and FNC properties in RoF. In the CLF big scheme of things, $200M or so would be a prudent thing to do (good insurance policy against surprises) for a better sleep at night.

Your bet?

goldhunter

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Nov 02, 2011 03:09PM
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