Re: Strike, Didn't you omit an Important Stimulus or Two to Tyhee's Share Price?
posted on
Apr 01, 2009 05:23AM
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OK, let's play.
Assume: 1) TDC is a geometric - not arithmetic - function of $GOLD.
2) Ignore all other factors.
So, since late October when $GOLD went from a low of 681 to last night's 918.80 (35% increase), TDC went from .085 to .15 (76.5% increase). So, if $GOLD goes up another 35% to 1240 (which is equivalent to 1.35^2 x 681), TDC would be 1.765^4 x .085 = 82 cents.
Put this amateur down for TDC = a minimum of 0.82 when POG =1240. Any other company specific positive developments would represent a separate multiplicative factor.
Another way of looking at all this - since when POG ~ 1000, TDC had already been at 0.82, the calculations based upon the above assumptions show that the credit crunch assigns approximately a $250 POG penalty to get back to the same price for TDC (and probably many other explorers).
Strike