OK, let's play.

Assume: 1) TDC is a geometric - not arithmetic - function of $GOLD.

2) Ignore all other factors.

So, since late October when $GOLD went from a low of 681 to last night's 918.80 (35% increase), TDC went from .085 to .15 (76.5% increase). So, if $GOLD goes up another 35% to 1240 (which is equivalent to 1.35^2 x 681), TDC would be 1.765^4 x .085 = 82 cents.

Put this amateur down for TDC = a minimum of 0.82 when POG =1240. Any other company specific positive developments would represent a separate multiplicative factor.

Another way of looking at all this - since when POG ~ 1000, TDC had already been at 0.82, the calculations based upon the above assumptions show that the credit crunch assigns approximately a $250 POG penalty to get back to the same price for TDC (and probably many other explorers).

Strike