Re: Market Risk?
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 15, 2008 06:50AM
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I respectfully entirely disagree with you Baires. He has a great point, in going long on TDC and hedging. I play swings and hedge and it's worked out well in this market.
Personally I think it's ludicrous to bet everything on one stock. I can work for awhile but if something unnexpect happens, you could lose everything. What would happen to the share price of TDC if a plane carrying Roger and Dave goes down? The stock would go down right along with it and we'd be hard pressed to get 20 cents for those shares. If a financial advisor recommended anyone put all their money in one stock they could be sued for everything they owned and barred from the industry if things didn't work out.
I don't know if this is the right time to short gold though. We have rising oil on both supply and geopolitical concerns. We have the potential for rate cuts in the US. Paulson said they'd take what action is neccessary to keep the US economy from collapse. I think that means lowering interest rates to about 1%. That should take gold up further. So there's no guarantee that gold will go down but that picture will become more clear in the next little while, probably by April.
Consider HBD rather than HGD, as it tracks bullion not stocks. Actually a combination might be best. Another option would be to get put options on one of the big producers.
Personally, I am shorting the US markets using proshare ultra etfs but most days I'm out by the end of the day, since you never know when Buffet decides to get on his white horse.