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Message: Vaccine
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Nov 16, 2020 08:01AM

A query for our scientific trial experts. The media is portraying like the end is nearing for a vaccine with the second set of results today. They have called these large trials of 40,000+ and 20,000 but I see them as trials of 94 and 95. That is the numbers that contracted the virus so the only ones contributing data other than safety data. These are tiny subsets that their 90.4% and 94.7% effectiveness is calculated on. My question is what sort of p-values might come out of these tiny numbers? These are great effectiveness ratios but could they have low enough p-values that redoing the trials could have significantly lower results even though they might still be very good. We know the effect of low numbers on Apabetalone's results and their trials being considered underpowered.

Funny how I just hit SEND on a message to a friend on these queries and instantly someone came on BNN expressing also that these were tiny subsets only and would set them toward more testing.

Any input from those in the field would be appreciated.  

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