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Message: Re: Biogen/Eisai Scrap Aducanumab
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Mar 21, 2019 08:32AM
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Mar 21, 2019 03:07PM
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Mar 21, 2019 03:37PM
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Mar 23, 2019 03:39PM
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Mar 24, 2019 01:45AM

BDAZ - Thanks for the link to those articles on vascular dementia. Between reading them and Jupiters suggestion of retreading the Van Leeuwenhoeck Report (pages 13 to 15) from 7/24/2018 in the link library it put a lot of perspective on the value of this sub study of BETonMACE. I had been valuing the potential Alzheimer's/dementia market using all patients whereas the vascular dementia market is approximately 10% of the total. The VLR allows for 3 million vascular dementia patients in NA, Europe and Japan. If by some miricle there is positive results in the general Alzheimer's patients then our potential market could go up 10 fold for that indication. An interesting comment in the VLR which is consistent with other readings is that there are currently no medications for vascular dementia. If apabetalone is shown to be an effective drug for this we could own that market for a time. IMO this vascular dementia market on its own represents around $15 billion of potential annual sales.

The VLR gives a 65% chance of BOM being successful and a 12% discount rate. Having a positive Top Line Result should provoke an 84% of success and likely reduce the discount rate yet again.

All IMO, dyodd

tada

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Mar 24, 2019 03:35PM
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Mar 25, 2019 10:18AM
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Mar 25, 2019 11:45AM
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Mar 25, 2019 12:48PM
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