Re: Another Date that is fast approaching
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 04, 2019 01:53AM
CD - I have a different view. If Top Line says in excess of 30% RRR I see some kind of lock-up deal that will come with an appropriate amount of cash up front but the deal will not close until after full trial results are out. If this is the real deal drug the peak annual sales could be in excess of $20 billion including CKD and cognitive function. The patent gives the purchaser exclusivity until 2034. If we assume first sales start in 2020 that's 14 years. From looking at a number of other drugs It looks like 14 years of patent protection Is 30% to 40% longer than many. That patent protection time should be worth a lot in the negotiations. Unless the potential purchasers want Chinese sales for themselves the current deal with HL is a great negotiating tool in this process. HL will win no matter what as long as we pass this trial.
April 15th for the ROFR. That kind of coincides with the approximate time that we could hear the Top Line results if Bears estimate on late achievement of 250 events(not adjudicated events) happens to play out. Is that just happen stance or are the moon and stars beginning to line up for us. Having about 40% of the stock in RVX will bode well for HLs ability to assist or thwart any deal that is made. IMO they will come away from this with between $2.4 and $4 billion dollars and maintain the rights to sales and manufacturing in China in a deal that will not close until after full trial results are revealed. Oh ya HL will get their $8 million for the ROFR back from RVX when another BP makes the purchase.
All IMO, dyodd.
tada