The economic answer to this lies in  ex ante vs ex post valuations. Before an expected event occurs, what is " built in" is the final full value multiplied by a probability factor, a number less than 1, of the event occurring. After the event occurs, the probability factor is 1 and the price jumps to final full value.  Short term, if the full value given contract success is $1, and the share price given contract failure is $0.30, then the market is giving Poet about a 35% probability of success.