Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Re: How Much Time Does It Take? What Does It Cost?

Woundedknees, regarding a) the PDK and b) the lab to fab transistion, the Oct 22th news release didn't give us more than just a little more insight. But remember, that NR came in a situation after Geoff Taylor and Pinetree both had sold some shares and people were wondering whether anything was fundamentally going wrong. That news release assured us that this was not the case, but that everything was in good shape.

However, the NR was much more than "a description of intend", as you call it! It was a description of ongoing processes. They confirmed the target date at least for the PDK: "The Company is anticipating delivery of the 40-nm PET Process Design Kits (PDKs) by the end of the year."

Please note that "by the end of the year" does not mean Dec 31st at the latest. Work might well extend into January and still be "by the end of the year".

Please also note that the company "is anticipating". It is neither setting a firm deadline nor will it have to declare bankruptcy or pay a penalty if the PDK can only be delivered on Jan 1st or Jan 20th or whenever. They are setting a target date so that we (and they themselves) might have a rough impression of how long things might take – no more, no less.

Please also note that the people creating the PDK quite likely have either a POET background or a TCAD modelling background, but not both. This does not necessarily cause any material problems, but will make it harder to estimate the durations of work packages. And as a software engineer I might say that software engineers tend to be overly optimistic – and likely other engineers, too. We have seen this effect in the past quite often; why should it be otherwise now!

Regarding the lab to fab transition the NR is somewhat cloudy:

"Recently, milestone goals and their associated target completion dates have been adjusted to align to potential customer demands. Mr. Peter Copetti, Executive Chairman and Interim CEO noted: "It is important for us to remain flexible in setting design targets to the market. The Company is focused on delivering to its potential customers the technology nodes that will enable them to leapfrog their competition. Our "Lab-to-Fab" transition and our new 40-nm target node will deliver just that: a roadmap for integrating electrical and optical capabilities, performance and power efficiency.""

Now what does that mean? Did they change the target date for the lab to fab initiative? I don't know for sure, but since the corporate presentation still says end of the year, I'd assume that this target still stands (more or less). Anyway, please note what I have highlighted! The company is delivering to potential customers. It is not delivering to shareholders, at least not in the first place. The customer is king, and if management considers it reasonable to adjust target dates or whatever, who am I to tell them otherwise! I am very confident that they know what they are doing.

Bottom line: As long as the company is not telling us otherwise, we should assume things are proceeding smoothly. We have no reason to assume any fundamental problems. And no, investor fatigue isn't a valid reason. ;-)

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