When considering the likely outcome of the Pellegrino Report 2.0, the mathematically oriented among us would take the Pellegrino valuation and divide it by the number of shares fully diluted (212 million, I think). As an example and just to have a number, let's assume for a moment Pellegrino would say POET's IP is worth $4 billions. Divided by 212 million shares, that would lead to something around $19 per share.

However, is the share price driven by mathematics? Only in part. We should also take emotions and expectations into account. What does the market expect the Pellegrino 2.0 valuation to be? Probably something between $1.5 and $10 billions.

Whatever the average expectation is: If Pellegrino 2.0 beats the expectations, people will be excited, buy like crazy, and the share price will rise. If Pellegrino 2.0 misses the expectations, people will be disappointed, throw shares on the market, and the share price will drop. It is as simple as that, at least in the short term.

Evidence 1: If the share price would be determined by mathematical considerations alone, we would be at $4.70 since the old Pellegrino 1.0. Have we ever been there? Not even close!

Evidence 2: Look at how the share price reacted after the GSF and ECC events! People had high expections, those expecteations were not fulfilled in both cases, and the share price dropped considerably – although nothing at all had changed fundamentally,

Of course manipulators could (and probably will) try to fuel or to soften Pellegrino 2.0 expections in order to benefit from these exaggarations. Take care, come to your own rational conclusions, and stick to them. I, for one, am sticking with my long-term expectation of $70+.

Andrea ("Powered by POET")