glorieux, I must apologize in advance but I disagree with the assessment you have presented.Inco did not offer $4.3 billion for 31mt of Voisey Bay ore.When Friedland eventually let go of Voisey's Bay he had proven up multiples of that amount and kept insisting that Inco should pay for every ton.I loaned my book out so I do not have a handy reference here but I think Inco's early offers were in the area of $40 per share based on the single orebody.This is why Diamondfields continued drilling to prove up more value.Inco bought roughly 120mt of in-situ ore for $3.3 B and the extra $1B was considered a normal takeover premium.So the GMV was nearly $35B and Inco paid about 10% of that.I think 10% of gross metal value (GMV)in-situ is the going rate ,honestly.
Now considering that in 1996 VB ore averaged $292/t and today DE ore averages $800-$1000/t, x 7 m/t = $7B x 10%=$700m divided by 118m os= roughly $6.00/share for DE ONLY (at present tonnage and metal prices)However we would like to see at least 3 times as much ore at these grades to make a mine and associated infrastructure spending worthwhile.
Now you can see why everyone is talking about tonnage.Prove up more ore and that is exactly what they are doing with 2 drills working , 2 more on order and some top geo people onboard.
A rough estimate might say that once we've proven 25mt of ore($800/t) ($20B) we should command a $20 shareprice on open trading,$25 includes a takeover premium(not including other projects outside of McFaulds)Of course 50mt,100mt...I'm tired,you can do the math.
This is all just one man's opinion and we need to hear other scenarios,that's what makes this forum great.GLTA
cs