HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

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Message: Voisy Bay was bought for 52% of in situe value

Voisy Bay was bought for 52% of in situe value

posted on Dec 30, 2007 07:04PM

Here is the article from PW that I was reffering to in my post regarding $400-1000 per share.  Notice that I used 25% of In situe value to get to $1000.  I really do not believe we will be sold for less than 20% and could be a fair amount higher.  The final SP when bought out will depend on tonnage and In situe value.  I have also included another important post from PW.  PW, I hope you do not mind me reposting these posts of yours.  I find them very important.

Back in 1996 when Inco bought Voisay's Bay for $4.3B, they basically valued only the Ovoid's 31.7 mt of the ore because the other 109.3 mt of deposits were 500 m below surface and no one was willing to mine those ore at the time.

The value of Ovoid's 31.7 mt of ore was valued at about $8.14M, using published grades of 2.83% Ni at $3.65/lb, 1.68% Cu at $0.50/lb, and 0.12% Co at $4.00/lb. The $4.3B deal represents a 52% of the in situ value.

So what do we have at Double Eagle today? Based on the rough dimension estimations from today's "Beyond the press release", using an average depth of 130 m, average width of 60 m, and length of 150 m, and averaging the results from an ellipsoid formula (more conservative) and a cylindrical formula (less conservative), we have a deposit volume of 765 km3, and it weighs 3.5 mt.

Using an average grade from holes 1, 2, 5, 7, and 9 results, we have $4.32B in situ value, so far. A major would want to pay around $2.16B for it next year, and that's $17 per share, fully diluted.

We all agree that this Eagle 1 is not finished. It perhaps has a strike length of at least 300 m, as presented by Mike White. That means $34 share price potential.

And there will be Eagle 2, and possibly more clusters.

I now can sleep much better.

~p 

We all know that Voisey's Bay was valued at $4.3B in 1996, and that valuation was mainly based on its Ovoid deposit only as other deposits were a minimum 500 m below the surface at lower grades. The following table shows you a value per tonne for Ovoid around 1996. Gross ore tonnage and the average grades were based on public information, and the metal pricing was based on my estimates for that time period. The result: $292 / t.

Ovoid

     

W

 

Value

Shares

     

Average

31,700,000

(t)

$9,261,551,250

28,846,000

Grades

$292

(/t)

$160.53

Ni

 

$3.80

(/lb)

2.83%

1,978,127,550

(lb)

$7,516,884,690

81.16%

Cu

 

$1.20

(/lb)

1.68%

1,174,294,800

(lb)

$1,409,153,760

15.22%

Co

$4.00

(/lb)

0.12%

83,878,200

(lb)

$335,512,800

3.62%

Now let's take a look at what we have today at Eagle 1. Without going through a complicated 3D modeling, as this ore body is still developing, I'm going to simply use the grades from each published hole and derive an average value per tonne for each hole, and then apply a weighted average by mineral length of each hole to derive a weighted average value for Eagle 1 as of the most recent NR. The results: $882 / tonne.

 

Hole

L

$

L x $

1 & 2

158

546

86,265

5

117

1,449

170,114

7

52

1,308

67,372

9

46

1,008

45,964

11-1

6

820

5,004

11-2

9

538

4,845

12

95

481

45,469

Total L

482

Average

($/t)

882

Note that I've omitted the 14.8 m of hole 10 as I consider it below the cutoff grades.

Conclusions:    

Eagle 1 so far as per tonne basis is about 3 times more valuable than Ovoid in 1996. We only need about 10.6 Mt of tonnage at Eagle 1, assuming continued average grades, to be comparable to Ovoid, and to expect a final valuation at about $4.3B, if it's sold alone.

So if we hit 10.6 Mt as PW mentions, our share price for eagle one alone in a buy out similar to VB would be $35.00 per share.  This is very reasonable and this I believe we will achieve.  However much more is possible.

Glorieux

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Dec 31, 2007 11:03AM
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Dec 31, 2007 11:34AM
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