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Golden Minerals is a junior silver producer with a strong growth profile, listed on both the NYSE Amex and TSX.

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Message: Ed Steer this morning

Americans Choose Gold as the Best Long-Term Investment: Gallup Poll

"It's obvious to both Ted and myself that the bullion banks are giving the gold and silver trees one last shake before the end of summer, hoping to cover more short positions in both metals."

¤ Yesterday in Gold and Silver

Gold spiked up the moment that trading began at 6:00 p.m. on Sunday evening in the New York Access Market...but there was a seller there immediately to bash the price down...and by 9:00 a.m. Hong Kong time in their Monday morning, the price was down a bit over $30 from its high opening tick.

From there, the gold price recovered back to around $1,825 spot...and then gently drifted down about $10 until the bullion banks pulled the rug out from under the price shortly before the equity markets opened at 9:30 a.m. in New York.

The subsequent $25 price rally got capped shortly after 11:00 a.m. Eastern...and the gold price was back below $1,800 the ounce in pretty short order. The absolute low of the day came in the thinly-traded electronic market at 3:30 p.m. right on the button. The price recovered a bit from there, but was still down $40.60 on the day.

Needless to say, the gold price would have done a lot better than this if JPMorgan et al weren't dicking with the price again. For a Monday, volume was pretty light...relatively speaking.

Silver spiked up pretty good on Sunday night as well, but the same not-for-profit seller was waiting for that, too...and from 9:00 a.m. Hong Kong time onward, silver spent most of the time within a dime or so of $21.15 spot.

Then at 9:25 a.m. in New York, the bid disappeared...and silver cratered 80 cents in about fifteen minutes before either the selling stopped, or a buyer appeared.

The subsequent rally made it back to about $40.93 spot...and silver then got sold off to its absolute low of the day of $40.20 spot around 2:15 p.m...before recovering strongly into the close. Silver finished down 'only' 62 cents on the day, but would have obviously finished well into the black if the '8 or less' bullion banks hadn't pulled their bids when they did.

Volume, net of all roll overs out of the September contract, was extremely light...so 'da boyz' didn't have to work too hard to run the price down the way they did.

As always, here's the dollar chart right from the open in Sunday night in New York...and it's for entertainment purposes only. By the way, this is the last time I'll show the daily dollar chart in this column, as it has become apparent [at least to me] that the precious metal prices are acting independently of it, or any other fiat currency. I may throw it in from time to time if there's something worth noting...but that's the only time.

With gold and silver prices shoved off a cliff shortly before the open...courtesy of the U.S. bullion banks...it was no surprise that their associated equities got hit for a bit over 2% at the beginning of trading. The bottom was in when the gold price hit its 10:15 a.m. low...and by shortly after 11:00 a.m. the HUI was back in the black...and managed to stay there until well into the New York lunch hour, before finally sagging a bit as the afternoon wore on. You will note that the gold's absolute low of the day at 3:30 p.m. precisely, was not the low for the gold stocks. The HUI finished down only 0.81%.

As I've been saying since last Wednesday, the stocks are not confirming these daily lows in gold and silver prices. Someone is obviously 'buying the dip' with abandon. Some people call them the 'smart money'. I call it insider trading. And, as I said on Friday or Saturday, I'm not sure if this is a legitimate buyer that is going to sell them at a huge profit...or 'da boyz' who are going sell them into the next rally in order to cap buying enthusiasm as the gold and silver stocks attempt to break out to new highs. We'll find out the answer to that question soon enough, I would think.

Considering that silver was hit for over 60 cents yesterday, the shares held their own just like the shares of their golden cousin. Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index was up 2.04%...which isn't too shabby at all.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The CME's Daily Delivery Report showed that 157 gold, along with the last silver contract for August, were posted for delivery tomorrow. In gold, Jefferies and MF Global were the two big shorts/issuers [135 contracts between the two]...and the big stopper [130 contracts] was JPMorgan in its client account. The link to the action is here.

The GLD ETF showed no changes yesterday...but over at SLV they reported adding 827,949 troy ounces of silver to their stash.

Over at the Zürcher Kantonalbank for the week that was, they reported a withdrawal of 184,679 troy ounces out of their gold ETF...but their silver ETF showed an increase of 379,990 troy ounces. As usual, I thank reader Carl Loeb for these numbers.

The U.S. Mint had a sales report yesterday. They sold another 3,500 ounces of gold eagles...2,000 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...along with 400,000 silver eagles. Month-to-date the mint has sold 104,500 ounces of gold eagles...26,500 one-ounce 24K gold buffaloes...an 3,389,500 silver eagles. I would think that the mint will have at least one more report before the end of August.

I'm sure they ran the forklifts into the ground over at two of the Comex-approved depositories...Brink's, Inc. and Scotia Mocatta...on Friday. Between them, they reported receiving 1,581,998 ounces...and shipped 1,986,360 troy ounces of the stuff out the door, for a net decline of 404,362 ounces. The link to that action, is here.

Here's a free snippet from silver analyst Ted Butler's weekly comments to his paying subscribers on Saturday..."From the COT report of August 2nd to the current report, the total commercial net short position [in gold] has been reduced by more than 57,000 contracts (5.7 million oz), as all three commercial categories bought short positions back aggressively. There should be no question that this commercial buying was the prime force behind the $300 surge in gold from August 1st thru the peak above $1,900. There should also be no question that the commercials uniformly panicked and took massive losses on their buybacks, as the technical funds and other longs cashed out at massive profits. This had never before happened in gold market history. The bottom line is that the buying back of commercial short COMEX gold contracts caused the price to explode. I believe the commercials also bought back another large chunk of short positions on the big gold price decline after the Tuesday cut-off. Make no mistake – whether the commercials are buying back on price rallies or declines, they are booking massive losses on the buyback. That has never occurred before."

Here are a couple of nifty graphs that Nick Laird over at sharelynx.com sent me over the weekend. The first is the CME Gold Margin graph...showing all the margin hikes that have been put on gold since the start of 2009. I ran the silver graph on Saturday, I believe...and here's its gold equivalent.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The second chart is the Yearly Tick Chart for gold...beginning in 1970, the year before Nixon closed the gold window. Note how the ticks keep getting bigger ever since the bull market began in 2001...and the 2011 year isn't over yet.

Since it's Tuesday, I have a lot of very worthwhile stories for you today which I hope you have the time to go through.

¤ Critical Reads

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Real People Say "Screw You" To The Markets

Here's the first story of the day...and it's also your first absolute must read as well. This is Karl Denninger over market-ticker.org...and he's on a rant...and has every right to be.

Don't even try to "invest" in this market folks, and if you decide to trade, realize that you're playing in a rigged casino and the entire force of the government is not only behind rigging the casino but explicitly endorses and permits the rigging to go on and continue, despite being fully-aware of it.

Liquidity? None. This is the bid/offer stack in the S&P futures a few minutes into the trading day.

Nobody is talking about this. That's 27 - twenty-seven contracts - on the bid at 1146.75. During the trading day. There's less than a thousand up and down the stack through the entire visible portion.

This is a tiny fraction of normal liquidity and those sub-100 numbers are more-akin to what you expect in the middle of the night when everyone's sleeping!

All that's left is the computers. The humans have gone home. True liquidity and participation has ended. The people have given up. This is not an isolated incident - as I write this I'm seeing it literally minute-by-minute, and it's been very common all month. A few minutes ago I saw seven contracts on the bid at the money. Seven - at 9:57 (ET) in the morning.

This story was posted on his website on Friday morning shortly after the markets had opened for the day. As I said, this is an absolute must read...and the link is here.

It May Be 2008 All Over Again, But There Is One Key Difference

I never steal more than a quote from Bill Buckler's be-weekly newsletter, The Privateer. But someone else stole more than that in this piece posted over at zerohedge.com...so I'm more than happy to post it here.

The financial press has been inundated with articles comparing what is happening in global markets now to events in the latter part of 2008. Sure enough, the surge in Treasuries from 100 to 143 in the last two months of 2008 following the Lehman bankruptcy is most comparable to the move in the same security from 122 to 140 in the two months since the beginning of July 2011. But there is one key difference between 2008 and 2011. Bill Buckler, in the latest edition of The Privateer, demonstrates what it is...

Fortunately, this must read piece is very short...and I thank Alberta reader B.E.O. for sending it along. The link is here.

Euro bailout in doubt as 'hysteria' sweeps Germany

German Chancellor Angela Merkel no longer has enough coalition votes in the Bundestag to secure backing for Europe's revamped rescue machinery, threatening a constitutional crisis in Germany and a fresh eruption of the euro debt saga.

Mrs. Merkel has cancelled a high-profile trip to Russia on September 7, the crucial day when the package goes to the Bundestag and the country's constitutional court rules on the legality of the EU's bail-out machinery.

If the court rules that the €440bn rescue fund (EFSF) breaches Treaty law or undermines German fiscal sovereignty, it risks setting off an instant brushfire across monetary union.

The seething discontent in Germany over Europe's debt crisis has spread to all the key institutions of the state. "Hysteria is sweeping Germany " said Klaus Regling, the EFSF's director.

This Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offering showed up Sunday night over at The Telegraph...and it's well worth the read. I stole this from a GATA release...and the link is here.

Finland's demands for collateral could leave Greek bailout in ruins

In July, Athens secured a second bailout package worth €109bn (£96bn), which involved "haircuts" for holders of Greek debt, and contributions from its eurozone neighbours.

Both parts of that deal now look distinctly shaky. Finland, where the anti-European True Finns party scored well in recent elections, has demanded that Athens put up collateral against the Finnish share of the latest loan.

Other small but angry nations, including Austria, Slovenia and Slovakia, responded by saying that if Finland was getting collateral, they wanted some too. Eurozone finance ministers were discussing the issue this weekend; but the Finns appear reluctant to back down.

Just another brick in the Eurozone wall. This story was posted in the Sunday edition of The Guardian...and is Roy Stephens first offering of the day. The link is here.

Economic leaders fear policy paralysis

The heads of the U.S. Federal Reserve, IMF and OECD stepped up pressure on political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic to shake off their inertia and tackle urgent economic problems.

If politicians ignore their pleas -- including a blunt call from International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde to "act now" -- the slowdown in world growth and debt turmoil in Europe could morph into a deeper crisis, top monetary officials and economists warned at an annual retreat here. [It's already a 'deeper crisis' - Ed]

This Reuters story was filed on Sunday from Jackson Hole, Wyoming...and is worth the read as well. I thank Roy Stephens once again...and the link is here.

Americans Choose Gold as the Best Long-Term Investment

A Gallup poll showed that thirty-four percent of Americans say gold is the best long-term investment, more than say so about four other types of investments. Real estate (19%) and stocks (17%) are distant second choices.

Gold is Americans' top pick as the best long-term investment regardless of gender, age, income, or party ID, but men, seniors, middle-income Americans, and Republicans are more enamored with it than are other Americans.

This gallup.com story was posted last Thursday...and I thank reader John Steinke for sharing it with us. The link is here.

Global Monetary System Collapse: End Game for the Paper Money System

Here's a Thomson/Reuters interview, probably from London, that was posted at their website on August 25th. It runs for 8:39...and is well worth watching. Once again I thank Roy Stephens for digging this up over the weekend...and the link is here.

Golden leaf to lighten investment burden

Consider this: In the last one year, gold prices in Mumbai have jumped from about Rs 19,000 per 10 grams to nearly Rs 27,000, a rise of 42%. Quite naturally those who were buying one or two grams of gold occasionally - which used to cost about Rs 2,000 or Rs 4,000 then-now have to shell out nearly Rs 3,000 to Rs 6,000. Since the salaries have not jumped by as much, these investors now find it tough to stick to their plan of buying gold even in the smallest of denominations available in the market.

Innovations in the bullion market are coming to address this loss of affordability. Wholesale bullion traders in Mumbai have come out with half-a-gram gold coins and some even with pieces of gold leaf that weigh as light as 100 milligram, that is 1/10th of a gram.

This very interesting story was posted in The Times of India early yesterday morning...and is another offering from Roy Stephens. The link is here.

Record prices spawn new wave of China gold bugs

Record gold prices, rather than denting China's enthusiasm for bullion, have emboldened investors to plough more money into gold bars and riskier bullion-based derivatives.

"The surge in prices has sparked another gold-buying craze. The 50 gram and 100 gram gold bars were selling like hot cakes," said Ms. Liu, a store manager at Shanghai's major jeweler Lao Feng Xiang Co Ltd, who said gold sales this month were up at least 30 percent from a year ago.

The attitude of Chinese consumers -- expected to soon overtake Indians as the world's top buyers of gold -- will be an important influence on longer-term trends.

This Reuters story from early yesterday, which I ripped out of a GATA release, has a wonderful photo imbedded as well...and the link is here.

Gold, politics, and Venezuela: Alasdair Macleod

Economist and former banker Alasdair Macleod wrote yesterday that Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez, seeking to repatriate his country's gold reserves, is attacking capitalism's weakest point. Macleod writes of Chavez:

"He has been told by his central bank that the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank for International Settlements hold gold for the whole central banking community in the main trading centers and that much of this gold exists only as a ledger entry and is not backed by physical metal. Whether or not Venezuela's gold is held in these fractionally backed sight accounts or in earmarked accounts where the gold is held separately, we do not actually know. But there is little doubt that this move is designed to encourage other central banks to demand that their gold is also repatriated."

In my opinion, this is another must read. I stole the story and the preamble from another GATA release. The story is posted over at goldmoney.com...and the link is here.

John Embry cites huge demand for real metal

Yesterday, King World News interviewed Sprott Asset Management's chief investment strategist, John Embry, and found him noting huge demand for real metal amid the paper price takedowns. Embry also paid tribute to mining entrepreneur and gold trader Jim Sinclair. Both men spoke at GATA's Gold Rush 2011 conference in London this month.

I stole the introduction from Chris Powell, for which I thank him...and an excerpt from the interview is posted over at the KWN website. The link is here.

Time to quit the gold party?

Here's a story out of the Saturday edition of The Telegraph that was sent to me by Washington state reader S.A.

Gold's thunderous bull run came to an abrupt halt on Wednesday, raising questions about whether the precious metal is really the safe haven that investors believe it to be.

So what's next for the price of the metal? Is the sharp correction a sign that its allure is fading? Or is the price fall an opportunity for investors who have stayed on the sidelines to join in the fun?

Despite the correction in the second half of the week, many observers say the price is likely to continue to rise over the coming months if the markets remain uncertain. Catherine Raw of BlackRock, the fund manager, said: "In the US and Europe the leadership has come under question in dealing with the spiralling debt crisis, meaning the market is unable to predict the direction of policy, particularly with respect to the financial system."

For The Telegraph, this is a pretty positive story but, like every other story you see from the main stream media these days, they always have to get their negative shots in at the end. The link is here.

Valuation Gap Makes Gold Miners Attractive But All Miners Aren’t Created Equal

Here's your long read of the day. It's a piece posted over at goldseek.com...and is by GATA's friend, Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors.

One market trend that seems to be attracting more and more attention is the large performance gap between gold bullion and gold stocks. The price of gold bullion has increased roughly 28 percent in 2011, while the S&P/TSX Gold Index was down 1 percent as of last Monday.

A report this week from BMO Capital Markets offered one reason behind the performance gap, “The rate of change in the gold price has been high over the past decade, perhaps too high for investors to gain confidence in that price as sustainable for an equity investment decision.” BMO says it was hard to imagine gold prices could sustain a $1,000 an ounce levels five years ago, but “now it’s hard to see the gold price falling to that level.”

There are lots of terrific charts and graphs...and I thank reader U.D. for sending me this story. It's posted over at goldseek.com...and the link is here.

Interview with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy: Part 2

On Saturday I posted Part One of this interview in my column...and the balance of the interview is now posted over at resourceclips.com...and the link is here.

3 Blogs from King World News

I got these three blogs in quick succession from Eric yesterday, so I decided to post all the links under this one heading. The first is headlined "Ben Davies: Monetary Blunders & How it Will Impact Gold". The second is titled "Peter Schiff: Dollar Crisis to Intensify Gold and Silver Demand"...and the last one is from Richard Russell...and the headline reads "Gold Will Break to New All-Time Highs". They are all very much worth your time, so fill yer boots!

Gold: Is a deep correction due?

If judged by the criteria of six years ago, Julian Phillips argues, then one could argue that it should be time to sell but, change has come to the gold market and things are not what they were.

The conditions that have lifted gold from $275 to $1,900 continue to persist. The gold price is not about gold; it is about the bear market in currencies, the deteriorating confidence in the value of currencies, as well as developed world's government's ability to restore that confidence.

As these factors point to more of the same, expect a continuation in the fall of currencies against gold and silver to levels deemed incredible by the developed markets of the world.

This very worthwhile piece was posted over at mineweb.com last Friday...and I thank Reno, Nevada reader Glen McMillion for sharing it with us...and the link is here.

Silver may be better bet than gold

Both gold and silver have made big moves higher so far this year, but silver’s gains of more than 30% year to date are more impressive than gold’s 25% climb and, likely, will continue to be.

“Own gold and silver as soon as you can,” Alex Cowie, editor of Diggers and Drillers, said in a recent report for Daily Reckoning Australia. But “I would choose silver over gold.”

This very short marketwatch.com piece was sent to me by reader Matthew Nel...and the link is here.

I won't show you mine, if you won't show me yours!

I could hardly believe what I was reading. Today's last story definitely comes out of the top drawer of the 'You-can't-make-this-stuff-up' filing cabinet.

Coin World's Paul Gilkes reported that federal officials have changed their position and are now threatening to confiscate as "contraband" any Liberty Dollars displayed publicly.

Gilkes writes: "Jill Rose, chief of the criminal division for the U.S. attorney's office in Charlotte, North Carolina, told Coin World August 24th that the Liberty Dollar medallions are confiscatable as contraband regardless if they are being exhibited for educational purposes only."

I stole this story...and most of Chris Powell's preamble...from a GATA release yesterday. The Coin World report is headlined "Liberty Dollars May Be Subject to Seizure". I'd say that this is a must read...and the link is here.

¤ The Funnies

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¤ The Wrap

There were two financial assets which boomed in late 2008. One was Treasury debt, the other was the US Dollar. While Gold and everything else was falling out of bed, the trade-weighted US Dollar index - the USDX - soared 21 percent from 73 to 88.2 between early August and late November 2008.

Compare that to what is happening now. Treasuries are soaring but the US Dollar is, at best, flat. And Gold in terms of EVERY major paper currency has gone ballistic. This time, things do look different. - Bill Buckler, The Privateer...August 20, 2011

Gold's net volume on Monday was a much-subdued 190,000 contracts...and, net of all roll-overs, silver volume is not worth mentioning. Yesterday was the last day for the large traders to sell or roll over their September contracts in silver...and they were out in force.

Last day for delivery in the August delivery month is tomorrow...and all outstanding August contracts in both gold and silver have already been posted for delivery...and they're all shown in the CME's Daily Delivery Report further up in this column. Wednesday is also first notice day for the September delivery month as well.

Although I'm not publishing the open interest data anymore, both Ted and I follow them every day nonetheless. Friday's final numbers were excellent...and the preliminary open interest numbers for Monday's trading day look just as good...especially in silver. It's obvious to both Ted and myself that the bullion banks are giving the gold and silver trees one last shake before the end of summer, hoping to cover more short positions in both metals. This Friday's Commitment of Traders report should be an education.

As I've been stating since last Wednesday, the gold shares have hardly reacted to the huge price moves in gold during the previous trading week. Here's the 1-month gold chart...and the moves are more than dramatic.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's the 1-month HUI chart. You can see that despite the monster drop in the gold price last week, the shares barely budged, as there were obviously strong hands buying every share that fell off the table during last week's price debacle. I consider this sort of non-confirmation to be very positive...but I'm still on guard for 'in your ear'.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Gold spent all of Far East and the early part of London trading in positive territory, but someone showed up at 9:00 a.m. London time to sell gold off more than ten bucks...but has since rebounded and is about unchanged from yesterday's New York close. Compared to last week, gold volume is extremely light.

The silver price was under pressure most of the thinly-traded Far East market...and is down a bit more in early London trading. Silver was never in positive territory at anytime during Tuesday trading so far today...at least not as of this writing at 5:29 a.m. Eastern time. Volume is negligible, so it's not difficult to move the price in market conditions such as that.

Since today is Tuesday, it is the cut-off for Friday's COT report as of the close of Comex trading at 1:30 p.m. Eastern time this afternoon. If I had to bet a dollar as to which way gold and silver prices will move in Comex trading today, I'd guess that JPMorgan et al will attempt a sell off in both metals once again...especially if trading volume is thin. Of course I'd love to be dead wrong about this...and we'll find out soon enough if my guess is worth anything. All dips should be bought.

I hope your Tuesday goes well...and I'll see you here tomorrow.

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