Shi:

Agree with all you say with one reservation. That is that I am not sure it would take a year. To assume that other powers in the region are not behind this or at a minimum planning as to how to take advantage of this situation for their own purposes, would likely be overly optimistic. In my opinion, the world is this morning is being overly sanguine about the threat this situation poses to world oil security. When considering dissatisfaction in other nations within the region, this situation could become almost instantaneously extremely explosive and a major threat to world peace and oil security.

Brian