The million dollar question
posted on
Jun 03, 2009 02:48AM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
What will Connacher do with the $175 million dollars that it has just raised? That is the million dollar question. Up to now many of us long time shareholders have supported managements decisions and still continue to support management. However, they risk losing credibility and our continued support if they do something stupid with the money. Management is currently arranging a building loan to complete Algar and a new revolving line of credit. So the big question on everybody's mind is what will managment do with the $175 million dollars? Will they buy out Alberta Oilsand (AOS) their partner at Halfway Creek? In my opinion that would be a stupid move. Will they buy Canadian Superior Energy's Western Canadian Basin assets? In my opinion that would be a stupid move. Will they build a pipeline to Algar and The Great Divide? In my opinion that would be a stupid move as a pipline company could build them one for free and charge them a toll on bitumen for a couple of years and then give Connacher the pipeline once the toll has paid it off so that Connacher is responsible for the maintenance costs. Will management spend the money to expand the refinery? In my opion this would be a stupid move as this isn;t enough capital to expand the refinery nor is the time right to do this. Will Connacher's management farmin on Petrolifera's oil and gas drilling in Columbia? If the La Pinta well is a runaway success will Connacher farmin on drilling future wells in this field in Columbia? Will Connacher farm in on Petrolifera's well drilling program in Peru or would that be a stupid move as it is too risky at this point? Will Connacher put more money into developing it's oil production and reserves at Battrum Saskatchewan? In my opinion that would be a stupid move as the field is already a mature field and it produces lower quality medium crude with 18-20 degree API oil which it sells for less money. Maybe then it is time to sell Battrum off and move on. Will Connacher spend the money this winter on drilling and hooking up a lot of natural gas wells on the new land that they have been quielty acquiring in northern Alberta in their last report? Would this be a good move as they have to increase their natural gas production to equal the supply of natural gas that they need to purchase for Algar if Conacher's original operating plan is to stay intact (the three legged stool). Would this be a good move as drilling costs are now low, however it is a seven month wait until the ground freezes, and will the price of natural gas rebound to justify the drilling? If not this would be a bad move.
How management spends the money is important. Many of us remember what the management team at Petrolifera did with the $37.7 million dollars they raised in their last share dilution in 2007. Their banker invested it in ABCP paper which resulted in Petrolifera losing the use of their money initially as well as a great deal of the money forever.
It is a proven axiom that in real estate the key to success has always been location, location, location. Those of us who risk our capital investing in oil and natural gas companies know that success is based on management, management, management. I heard it said that 90% of the oil and gas drilling companies you don't want to invest in even though many of their projects look good. What your job to do as an investor is to locate the remaining 10% of the companies which have the best management teams, and then narrow them down to pick the ones to invest in. It's those few management teams that will be really successful and they are the key to your successful investing. It's Management, management, management. That is the key to being successful in selecting successful oil and gas companies to invest in. If you lose faith in the management team, then it is always time to move on. What Connacher's management team does with this newly raised $175 million dollars will be the defining moment in the company in terms of will the remaining long term shareholders continue to stick with their investments in Connacher or will they sell off and move on? A word to managment, the longs will be watching what you do with the $175 million and we will base our future investment decisions on what you do with it. This is a defining moment in the history of the company. Choose well.
Best Wishes; Scott