I've asked this before but got no comments. I'm still puzzled why Ecuador is not releasing the new mining law until after the referendum? Otto thinks, is 100% certain new mining law is ready and just being sat on by Correa. My question, what difference does it make if the referendum vote is a YES/NO in relation to the new mining law. Stop this silliness and release the law already.

Originally I thought the delay was due to bringing the mining law into line with the Constitution (or vice versa) but having now read the Constitution, I can't see it taking that long.

The next possibility is that they just didn't have time for a vote. After all, the Assembly was rather busy towards the end trying to finish the Constitution. If that's the case, we'll have to wait a bit longer as the Assembly has wrapped up operations and won't reconvene until 5 days after the referendum on Sept 28 (see article I posted).

However, the purpose of reconvening is only to appoint a mini-congress (Congresillo) to govern until newly elected representatives assume their posts, sometime next spring. My understanding is the Congresillo will have legislative power to vote on the mining law. So the earliest we can expect a vote is five days after the referendum, although it will likely be a week or two beyond.

Are they sitting on it (for some nefarious reason) or are they simply unwilling to release a final draft that won't go to a vote for at least 2 more months? Undoubtably it will pass, but until a vote is taken, it is still only a draft. Suppose they decide to change it in that period. There's nothing to prevent it that I'm aware of, so it would mean releasing yet another draft, and how would the markets react to that?

So, the question is, do you release the "final" draft 2 months before the vote, and let the market run with that, or do you keep the option for late changes, without stirring things up by revising an already released, supposedly "final" draft, which turns out to not be so final after all?

I don't know what I'd do in their place. It's obviously the final piece of the puzzle as far as mining in Ecuador is concerned. A lot rides on getting it right, and as much as we'd like to think we're important to them, in the grand scheme of things Aurelian is just one company among many, present and future, which will be governed by this act.

As for the referendum, the outcome shouldn't affect the mining law, except where specific reference to the new Constitution is concerned. In the NO case, sections would have to be changed to conform to the old Constitution, but that would be a formality, not a complete change of intent I believe. The law in its essence should stand at least until it comes up for legislative review, which would probably only happen in the case of a majority win by the opposition in the upcoming elections. In that case, some of the tougher parts might come out, or they might just leave it alone if it's working OK. That bridge we cross when we get to it, but any revisions from the point it becomes law would be to our favor I'd imagine.

This is just my reading of the situation. As I'm sure you're aware, things are very fluid and hard to analysis with great confidence. I can only guess at what's going on based on my reading of the Ecuadorean press. Anything beyond that is my own intuition, and shouldn't be taken as fact.

ebear