1. the article is written by our "friend" Alonso Soto (OK, OK)

2. the contents of the draft constitution has not been leaked out and yet only 41% polled said they would support that document.

3. Soto's conclusion is that indicates Correa lacks the support needed to pass the consitution.

Well, it all depends on if you look at the glass as half full or half enpty. Isn't it? To me, if 41% of the population voted on blind faith I would say that's pretty solid support. The remaining 9%+ required to win a 50%+ majority should not be that hard to get if the document is sensible. Isn't it?

A lot depends on how many turn out to vote. If half the nation sits on its hands, you can have an 80% victory that only represents 40% of the electorate. I'd call that failure, and I imagine most Ecuadoreans would too. It's not just a majority of votes they need. They need the electorate to turn out in large numbers. I'm not so sure that will happen.

I'm reminded of an old joke from the last days of the Soviet Union. Comrade A asks, are you going to the State funeral? Comrade B says, naw...I'll catch the next one.

This is how many constitutions now? 20? Maybe they'll just wait for the next one?

Let's just hope a set of favourable mining laws would be part of that package.

I'm hoping it won't be. I want a mining law NOW. The assembly has de-facto legislative power. Correa appointed them, which was legal under the 1998 constitution, still in effect (although you wouldn't know it). So pass the law NOW. Get it on the books, and amend it later if there's a problem.

If it's embedded in the constitution and that document fails to pass, we are back to square one.

So <pounds drum> Mining Law NOW!

ebear