Wellie's report
posted on
Jun 13, 2011 10:45AM
Intellectual Licenses for Electronics & Communications
From Wellie's report today: Partnership with Wi-LAN Brings Expertise and Financial Support to the Licensing Program • Partnership with WIN could accelerate ONE’s licensing program. While no terms were disclosed, WIN recently said their Gladios division would help fund licensing programs in exchange for ~50% of the royalty. WIN has signed 254 licensees across multiple patent portfolios, which generate $100M+ revenue/year. WIN has $193M in cash and no debt. Given WIN’s due diligence and credibility in the licensing space, our confidence in ONE’s large licensing opportunity has increased. While we expect the stock to move higher on this news, we are leaving our target unchanged until further details on the partnership are available. Summary Judgment Derails Stock as Appeal Will Delay the Case by at Least a Year While ONE will appeal after the Judge files his written opinion in a few weeks, the case is likely delayed for at least a year, if appeal is successful. Given this statistic, we have probability-weighted ONE’s revenue opportunity from LogMeIn by 24% and pushed out a license to 2014. While lifting of stay should be positive, uncertainty on whether Citrix will argue similar summary judgment could partially mute positive reaction. Our target is based on a prob-weighted DCF. The stock is catalyst driven, and given the delay in LOGM, Citrix case likely offers the next catalyst. Investment Summary and Outlook 01 Communique Laboratory Inc. (ONE) is currently involved in two high profile patent licensing litigations, which could result in significant licensing revenue and open the door to a broader patent licensing program. ONE has a suite of products in the remote access services, support and online meeting markets. These products are protected in part by their patents. ONE plans to participate in the growth of these markets by continuing to develop and market products and services to end users, as well as enter into agreements with competitive companies making use of the Company’s IP rights. We believe the Company is well positioned to win these legal battles, which could result in large awards and running royalty agreements that would support much higher share prices. Given the recent sell-off in the stock, we believe investors should be opportunistic and acquire positions ahead of potential catalysts in the LOGM case including the trial set for May 2nd, 2011. Our $3.00 price target is based on a DCF, which assumes ONE is successful in signing LogMeIn (LOGM) in 2011, Citrix in 2012, and 30% of the remaining remote access market by 2014. Our model assumes a royalty rate of 9% and includes back damages at the same rate. We have not included treble back damages, although ONE is asking the court to consider awarding damages based on willful infringement. Treble damages would increase our target to $5.34 per share. We have discounted the cash flows at 15% and applied no terminal multiple past 2022, when the patent expires. Exhibit 1 illustrates the valuation sensitivity using a royalty range of 5% to 11.5% (industry average), across a number of different scenarios. Q1 Results are Essentially Inline ONE reported Q1/F2011 revenues of $135,265, up 80% year-over-year and above our $83,000 estimate. This was attributed to an increase in licensing revenue, likely due to the settlement with Dell. Cash operating expenses increased 140% year-over-year to $940,224, which was higher than our $236,000 estimate. This was due to higher R&D spend (due to the release of I’m In Touch Meeting) and higher than expected litigation expenses attributed to the LogMeIn litigation. While Baker & Hostetler have taken the case on a contingency basis, ONE has to pay out of pocket expenses, which led to the increase in the quarter. We believe that Baker & Hostetler has incurred ~$11 million in legal fees so far across both cases. We expect operating costs to remain at a similar level in Q2/F2011. The Company generated EBITDA of ($835,400) and incurred an adjusted loss of 1¢ per diluted share. This was lower than our estimate of ($153,600) in EBITDA and break-even bottom line. The Company consumed $142,500 in cash and exited the quarter with $4.9 million or 8¢ per diluted share. We anticipate cash to decline again next quarter (~$500K), but for the Company to be cash flow positive in 2H/F2011 assuming a win in the LogMeIn case. Given the uncertainty around settlement timing, potential appeals and potential licensees from other companies there may be significant variability in our quarterly estimates. We focus on a DCF to value the Company for this reason. successful, it would set the stage for the rest of the market to take a license. The LogMeIn case is scheduled to go to trial on May 2nd, 2011. In the meantime, investors are waiting for a decision on LogMeIn’s Summary Judgment, which was heard before Judge Hilton on February 25th, 2011. This ruling could be filed any day now, and if denied, could be a catalyst for the stock. See our note published on 02/02/2011 “We See Little Merit in LogMeIn’s Motion for Summary Judgment” for details on LogMeIn’s position and our view as to why we believe the summary judgment will be denied. As we approach trial, we expect negotiations between the two parties to intensify. Judge Lioi could rule on whether to lift the stay on the Citrix case at any time. While we are uncertain as to the delay in Judge Lioi’s decision, we believe the stay should be lifted given Judge Hilton (in the LogMeIn case) denied LogMeIn’s motion to stay the case. Recall Judge Hilton stated “it appears that the chances of the USPTO reversing the validity of the patent are remote”. Although the two cases are independent with independent Judges, we believe a positive ruling in the LogMeIn case may lead to the stay being lifted in the Citrix case. Reiterating Strong Buy Rating and $3.00 Target Our $3.00 Target Includes the Opportunity from Ongoing Litigation Our price target of $3.00 assumes that LogMeIn takes a license in 2011, Citrix in 2012 and 30% of the remaining remote access market is signed by 2014, all at a 9% royalty rate. We have used a discount rate of 15%. Investors should consider that if ONE is successful in signing licensees our discount rate would decrease, resulting in higher future price target calculations. Our current target also does not include any potential licenses from the web conferencing, VoIP, and online gaming markets, which we believe could eventually lead to additional revenue streams. Licensing Agreements Would Lead to Strong Operating Leverage ONE’s operating expenses are very low given the Company has hired Baker & Hostetler on a contingency basis; therefore successful licensing agreements would generate strong earnings growth. Assuming ONE is successful in signing LogMeIn and Citrix, we believe the Company could generate meaningful earnings, we believe investors will look to value the Company on an earnings-basis. Currently the peer group is trading at a P/E multiple of 13x 2011 (see Exhibit 2). Valuing ONE using a similar multiple and power would support a future price target of $3.90.
• WIN brings expertise and a strong balance sheet to support litigation.
• We believe the focus will remain on companies using remote access.
• Reiterating Spec. Buy and
.75 target until more details available.
• Major setback as Judge grants summary judgment for LOGM.
• 24% of IP summary judgments are reversed in the appeal process.
• Citrix case is legally independent but LOGM ruling adds uncertainty.
• Moving to Spec. Buy & lowering target to
.75 from $3.00.
From Wellie's report in March:
Near-Term Catalysts are Centered on Litigation
The LogMeIn case is fast approaching and we believe that if ONE is
.30 of recurring EPS annually. As the Company adds licensees and
.30 in earnings