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Message: Harsh realities of high risk

Harsh realities of high risk

posted on Mar 02, 2006 06:36AM
Geoff,

During the period of time under discussion and actually throughout the period up until the consumation of the JV of BioAgra, there was a great deal of uncertainty if the deal would ever be struck.

Those uf us that stepped up to the plate with check book in hand wondered if we would ever EVER see any of our money again and faced the idea that any stock we received would be worthless when the restrictions were lifted.

That is the reality of high risk financing. All the risks were spelled out in the prospectus and the concept of losing everything is stressed.

However, those of us that believed in the potential and wanted to see the deal made, negotiated in relation to the potential of total loss but with the mind set to get the job done.

We had the statistics of the efficacy of Beta Glucan. We had the pictures of an empty shell buidling in Hinesville, GA. We had the promise of expertise to convert the empty building into a production line.

And we had a ticking clock with the intent of a JV announced in October of 2004 and here it was in June/July 2005 and the deal had not been consumated. Time was running out and the risk was that it would never be done and BioAgra would go elsewhere to get the funding to build the production line.

It was a very dark time.

I relate it to the idea that a person who is unemployed sees a house that looks like it has great potential and goes to a bank to get a mortgage based on the houses potential alone. No bank will touch him. So he goes to a group of friends who see the potential but the resources of the borrowing person are minimal. If the friends are smart and believe in the potential, they will negotiate for the best possible deal to mitigate the potential total loss of the situation, including some ownership in that house.

NanoPierce, at that time, had little resources to bargain with. They did not even have any ``real estate`` to offer as collateral. The growth of ExypnoTech was not known at that time. They had a dream and that was about it.

We stepped up to the plate. We averted any potential of toxic financing. Though, on average, our deal was struck at 50% of the market`s current value, the alternative would have been to do convertible debentures which would have ultimately destroyed the company and our investment. And, speaking for myself, that repayment of the short term note to keep the deal going for that two months went right back into the company to get the deal done.

There is still a great deal of uncertainty in this deal. We have not had any announcement that the production line is producing. We have not had any announcement that there are orders. The share price fluctuates lower than the pre-reverse prices that we started with last summer. Some of us experienced heart burn and palpitations when the share price dipped to five cents which was the share price of a majority of financed restricted shares (that would be one dollar post reverse).

For me, I have had the benefit of visitting the facilities in Hinesville, GA in November and then end of January. I have seen great progress in the production line. The electricity is fully installed (the transformer is huge). The boiler with controller is fully installed. The miles of piping has been installed and pressure tested a month ago. The centrifuge is installed and (being a technogeek) is an amazing piece of machinery.

So, everything has to be looked at during the time and risk of the deal. The potential that the deal would not be completed was high. The potential that NPCT would go under by November last year was there. The potential that BioAgra would take financing from another source was there.

Any one of us (I mean those that read and post on Agora) could have called the company to offer financing. As PMB has indicated, financeers have to be acreditted (assets >$1 mil for individual, >$5 mil for corporate). NPCT/VYTC also wanted to be darn sure that any entities for the financing would not be rape/pillage types so they were very careful in who they took money from with also the reality that they needed to get this deal done to survive.

I hope I have given the idea of how tenuous and how high risk this investment was and could still be. As each level of financing and JV consumation and production line development is achieved, the risk is less (though I wish the current share price would reflect that). When production is announced and orders are filled, I do look forward to far higher share prices.

This type of investment (OTC BB and any startup company) is not for the faint of heart. Many people that I have come to know over the past ten years dealing in the OTC arena, I feel would live calmer lives if they put their money either in a safe mutual fund or under the matress. However, the potential returns are great. And, I acknowledge to myself, I could still lose everything.

Each of us has to weigh our risk tollerance, potential, and life desires. And the risks are a moving target, constantly changing, sometimes even hourly.

Regards,

Kent

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