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Message: Re: When/if the Probe sale goes through

Hmm, well a few things..don't get me wrong i am a little dissappointed in the overall "quickness" of this sale. TG has an advantage in that they can ship ore...no need for large CAPEX. Any other bidders need CAPEX 400 million + a better offer and it may not arrive.

I was hoping someone else would come along...but it's not the case.

Sigh.................I will wait and keep my new probeco...Can Dave P get hit 3X with lightning....we'll see.

As for the price of Gold...analysts range from 700 bucks all the way to 5000. It all depends on what you believe. One analyst suggsted range bound 1120 to 1380...hell, I could have suggested that !!

I watch volumes...and also take note that a lot of Gold Coin issues are scarce !

One Weird item is Eric Sprott suggested 60 tons of gold went through the Shanghai Gold Exchange about 3 weeks ago now. I found it...it took 3 days.

64 tons is 1/50 of what is produced all year in the world....so 2 % scooped up by one exchange.

Yes I am confident the Chinese are hoarding.

Take a look at the daily volumes...on the Shanghai.

http://www.en.sge.com.cn/datas/sgeprice-daily/524351.shtml

They are picking up like Crazy with these low prices.

A lot of countries buying...even russia bought 146 tons last fall Sept through December.

Maybe I am missing something...?

Oh well, it will bounce back. Wait for the Q1 results from high cost producers, Detour Gold comes to mind. Wait for the inevitable trace back to around 7.50 to 8.50 and then pounce. Gold be back into the 1280-1350 range and you will make 30-50 % all depends on your risk tolerance.

While I am not happy about 5 bucks...I will take it and watch the oil market like a Hawk.

Their was an interview with the Past President of Shell Oil...very good perspective.

  • Decline Rates 5 % ( closer to 10 % on Fracked wells if not higher ) 92 million barrels a day produced and this suggests a 4.5 million barrel drop. Even worse since no new drilling plans.
  • no new major discoveries.
  • Easy oil is pretty much gone
  • High invenotries are not reflective of usage.

I know we all hear in the U.S. 330 million barrels in storage and another 300 million in Emergency supply..so this is 630/20 or 31 days of oil.

Traffic is worse than ever...everyone still drives a lot of places.

Either way, I have time..not a lot of time..but time to be patient.

Have narrowed it down to 7 stocks...all with a dividend except one.

I will strike soon...as soon as oil crosses 54-56 buck.

I will keep my new Probeco..and If I like the play...I will put in more after the initial dip !

Dave P raised money plain and simple...he sold at a low price...or maybe not. TG has a dividend.

Enjoy your time ! These are the best of times..!

Captain Time..

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