Its a dangerous game to attempt to time the market on a a stock or commodity market that you favor for the long term. Even if we take a hit shot term, the real price won't be determined next week or even next month on 200K shares, but in the future on huge volume.

This will all depend on phosphate prices. BMO never provides a forcast of future prices. They don't even incorporate a simple 2% price inflation over the next 2.5 decades to the $125 assumption! There is no way that is standard. I mean if the dollar keeps devaluing & we get near double digit inflation...and by 2030 we'll be imminently closer (or past?)peak world production. I think the bet is all about the future phosphate price forecast. From what I've seen in recent articles/reports:

1. US phosphate rock supply peaked in the 1980s at just under 55mm mt. In 2006, the US produced 30-35mm. This is similar to oil....the world's biggest demand country starts as one of the biggest suppliers and peaks before rest of world around a hubbert bell curve.

2. world phosphate rock supply increased during the green revolution and peaked (so far) in the 1990s at about 165mm. world phophate production was recently (2006) at 142 mm. For reference, Legend's anticipated 4mm peak supply down the line is 3% of current world supply. --------Anyone here have ties to the industry and know the world supply numbers for '09? I've heard rumours of 150 but source wasn't reliable. This is the number to watch & see what impact the hugely increasing prices from 06-07 are having on supply in the near future.

3. the supply numbers are key I think. the future demand is more predictable.... anticipated to increase at 2% with S&E asia taking up the majority of that percentage.

4. last year's near depression made things complex....a huge blow not only to the year's demand but also to reserves