RE: Shareholders Meeting Sooner Than You Think
posted on
Jul 14, 2005 12:35PM
One, if my conjecture is correct, we may not hear a word about it till later. Until after the votes are counted, it wouldn`t be a ``done deal`` and won`t be addressed.
Two, the Amtrak deal won`t be anywhere near 50,000 units (too many zeros!). 5-10,000 most likely. Per prior calculations (B-Lunist?), on average, Amtrak carries 70,000 passengers a day. Expecting a take-up of more than 10% is way overly optimistic (10% would justify 7,000 units, plus some 50% in rotation, hence the high number of 10,000).
This is one thing that does amaze me. It does appear that an Amtrak deal announcement is iminent. But only a few of us ``know``. But a 10,000 unit order should be good for a net $1M+. Take away overhead, but then add a little for other sales, and it alone should still give at least half a cent a share earnings. Apply multiple of 50 (P/E), and the stock should be worth 25 cents a share based on fundamentals. That`s a doubler from here.... And yet we dwell in the gutter..... Amazing!
SGE