Auction Scenarios for LOOK
The Jan 14th Shareholder Vote should meet the 2/3 shareholder approval requirement, and I believe it will be approved;
The following summarizes some possible scenarios (after the LOOK Auction), most have been mentioned previously by others on both boards;
1) Bell - purchase to keep spectrum from others, may be required if UBS lawsuit is successful.
2) Rogers - same as Bell
3) Telus - needs this spectrum to compete long term with B & R.
4) Globalive/Orascom - Possible purchase/likely partnership.
5) Videotron - partial purchase/partnership.
6) Clearwire consortium - finds a Canadian partner
7) RIM - partial purchase/partnership
8) Niagara Networks - (or was this really the Clearwire consortium)
9) Canadian consortium (possibly Videotron, Telus, Shaw Craig, MTS, .. etc)
I'm sure there are other possible bidders.
An outright purchase is likely only for Bell/Rogers. B/R likely think the lawsuit is unsubstantiated and don't feel they need this additional spectrum. But what if the courts tell them they are wrong (kiss ownership of the Inukshuk spectrum goodbye ...).
Partnerships would likely involve UBS (although I acknowledge others are possible). This could make UBS a significant player in the future wireless scene. UBS could also be the "Canadian" partner to meet FO requirements for a foreign buyer. Partnership would also require the least amount of cash for a buyer to invest in this spectrum. A UBS partnership is the "best case scenario" for this stock price going forward as this would drive the share price up not only for the auction but well into for the foreseeable future.
How much is it really worth to ALL of these wireless players to keep this lucrative, BROADBAND wireless spectrum (ie. Wimax or LTE) out of the hands of other players? ...hmmm... well see soon, it might surprise everyone .... Recession or not.
Hard to speculate the winner. My rankings are (first to last) 6,4,5,3,2,1,9,7
All speculation and JMHO. Long and strong on UBS ...
... wolf359