Re: Mill and projection estimates reconsidered. Mar1/10.
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 01, 2010 03:00PM
(Edit this Message from the "Fast Facts" Section)
sinbob,
Nice numbers. Thanks for doing the calcs. Those numbers are probably the best that can be done at the moment, at least until we get some more solid numbers from the company.
You're right, the numbers I've seen for the mill capacity are all over the place, with 30 tpd the minimum. That is probably absolute minimum for one shift, without the additional parallel circuit and ball mill that was acquired a while back. There's also the question of how many shifts/day. I imagine they'll start with one shift at low capacity, ramp up production, and then maybe add shifts as any bugs get worked out. So anywhere from 30 to 400 tpd- a factor of more than 10, with the eventual numbers probably in the upper part of that range.
The next big question is the grade of the unprocessed ore- again, the numbers I've seen are all over the place, with the numbers you quoted at the bottom of the range. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised though- considering that anything that didn't have visible gold was probably left on the mountain rather than packed down by mule at the time. The tunnels must have followed the veins, since there was little else to guide them, so all that material was probably from within 5-10 feet of visible veins. I'd say there are good odds that a lot of that material is pretty high grade. There's probably a factor of 10 or more in the grades that will be found- and I think the numbers you used are at the low end.
Taking the 400 tpd figure (since that is something the company does have control over, and that can be increased once revenue starts coming in), and the minimum grades you used, does give a conservative sp somewhere around $1. But if the grades are 5-10 times higher, and the company decides to increase the mill capacity at some point, we may very well see a sp approaching double digits.
BTW, I was away for most of February with limited internet access. I didn't post, but was able to follow what was going on. Looks like we are about to be uplisted and the mill is close to commissioning. Of course, that same thing could have been (and was) said for the past year, but it looks like we really are approaching some significant milestones.