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Message: Mill and projection estimates reconsidered. Mar1/10.

Mill and projection estimates reconsidered. Mar1/10.

posted on Mar 01, 2010 01:42PM

The information available indicates that SFMI has 300,000 tons of discarded mine excavation material above ground (in dumps) that have not been processed…commonly and erroneously referred to as “tailings” (tailings are the leftover material after most of the recoverable precious minerals have been extracted.) In SFMI’s case, historical data indicates that anything under 2 oz/T (62 gm/T) was not processed. The present assays estimate SFMI has enough above ground ore (“tailings”), 300,000 tons, to process anywhere from $60 million up with minimal assays of 5.1 g/t Au and 72.7 g/t Ag….and varying with the price of the metals. Also, SFMI may enrich the above ground material with higher grade material still readily accessible in the mine shafts.

The original mill was capable of processing 30 tons of ore per day through three circuits with a chemical free process (From 10). The NR of Feb.6th, 09, announced that relocation of equipment in the mill circuit and the installation of a parallel wet-line circuit should quadruple the planned gold and silver production. The assumption is then that the milling output would be increased to 120 tons/day/shift…and that two shifts/day would produce 240 tons/day. To further confuse things, the history of mining report published end 2008 indicates a mill output per day of 400 tons (I a presuming a double shift?). That report projects a net return/yr. of $18.5 million based on 240 days @ $925 gold and @$12 silver. Today that would be $23.2 million @$1100 gold and $16 silver. With a throughput of 240 tons/day that would be reduced to $13.9 million/yr. Minus the 15% net smelter fee for Goldcorp those net annual proceeds would be $19.7 million/yr. and $11.8 million/yr.

So, optimally SFMI net annual is $19.7 million. With the price of gold and silver projected to run to min. $1600/oz and $25/oz. the picture gets even better. If SFMI can operate the mill for more hours or more days annually, more profits accrue. Additionally, if SFMI can increase the value/ton of ore processed by enriching it with higher grade material…then the profits are even greater. Cumulatively, it is reasonable to assume a double up of the $19.7 million net/year to $40 million net/year.

So, minimally SFMI will net $11.8 million/yr. Now for P/E. Kitco shows small cap Au co's with P/E average in 2009 of 20. Let’s go conservative with 10/1 and bump the shares outstanding to 150 million. That would give SFMI a $.78/share value.

So…..a net of:

$11.8 M/yr. = $.78/share.

$19.7 M/yr. = $1.30/share

$40 M/yr. = $2.60/share

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