Howard publishes the best selling "financial' newsletter of all time, The Ruff Times.

The following is an excerpt from his most recent article published on the Kitco site.

“What promises hyperinflation this time is the lack of monetary discipline formerly imposed on the system by the gold standard, and a Fed dedicated to preventing a collapse in the money supply and the implosion of the still, extremely over-leveraged domestic financial system.”

“The limits to the unlimited abuse of the debt standard are particularly evident in the GAAP-based financial statements of the U.S. government, which show the actual federal deficit at $4.0-plus trillion for 2007 alone, with total federal obligations standing at $62.6 trillion. With no ability to honor these obligations, the government effectively is bankrupt.”

"Although the U.S, government faces ultimate insolvency, it has the same way out taken by most countries faced with bankruptcy. It can print whatever money it needs to create, in order to meet its obligations. The effect of such action is a runaway inflation - a hyperinflation - with a resulting, full debasement of the U.S. dollar, the world’s reserve currency.”

“Oil prices are near historic highs, the dollar is near historic lows, and money growth is at an all-time high. The near-term outlook for all three is for new record levels and for extremely strong upside pressure on U.S. inflation. … gold prices should continue setting new historic highs.”

“The difference is in accounting … for unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities.”

“Put into perspective, if the government were to raise taxes so as to seize 100% of all wages, salaries and corporate profits, it still would be showing an annual deficit using GAAP accounting on a consistent basis. In like manner, given current revenues, if it stopped spending every penny (including defense and homeland security) other than Social Security and Medicare obligations, the government still would show an annual deficit.”

“U.S. federal obligations are so huge versus the national GDP that the country’s finances look more like those of a banana republic than the world’s premiere financial power and home to the world’s primary reserve currency, the U.S. dollar.”

“The effect of this structural change has been that most consumers have been unable to sustain adequate income growth beyond the rate of inflation, unable to maintain their standard of living. The only way personal consumption can grow in such a circumstance is for the consumer to take on new debt or liquidate savings. Both those factors are short-lived and have reached untenable extremes.”

“From the Fed’s standpoint, it can neither stimulate the economy nor contain inflation. Lowering rates has done little to stimulate the structurally-impaired economy, and raising rates may become necessary in defense of the dollar.”

“By the time hyperinflation kicks in, the economy already should be in depression, and the hyperinflation quickly should pull the economy into a great depression. Uncontained inflation is likely to bring normal commercial activity to a halt.”

Hyperinflationary Great Depression

“In the United States, the printing presses have not been revved up heavily yet, but the commitments are in place, as seen in the annual GAAP-based deficit running on average more than $4.0 trillion per year. That amount is far beyond the ability of the government to tax or the political willingness of the government to cut entitlement spending. While the inevitable inflationary collapse, based solely on these funding needs, could be pushed well into the next decade, actions already taken likely have set the stage for a much earlier crisis.”

“It is this environment that leaves the U.S. dollar open to potentially such a rapid and massive decline, and dumping of U.S. Treasuries, that the Federal Reserve would be forced to monetize significant sums of Treasury debt, triggering the early phases of a monetary inflation. In this environment annual multi-trillion-dollar deficits rapidly would feed into a vicious, self-feeding cycle of currency debasement and hyperinflation.”

“Given the extremely rapid debasement of the larger denomination notes, with limited physical cash in the system, existing currency would disappear quickly as a hyperinflation broke. From a practical standpoint, however, currency would disappear, at least for a period of time in the early period of a hyperinflation.”

“Barter System. With standard currency and electronic payment systems non-functional, commerce quickly would devolve into black markets for goods and services and a barter system.”

“Gold and silver both are likely to retain real value and would be exchangeable for goods and services. Silver would help provide smaller change for less costly transactions.”

“In such a circumstance, gold and silver would be primary hedging tools that would retain real value and also be portable in the event of possible civil turmoil. Also, at some point, the failure of the world’s primary reserve currency will lead to the structuring of a new global currency system. I would not be surprised to find gold as part of the new system, in an effort to sell the system to the public.”

“I still look for U.S. stocks to take an ultimate 90% hit, peak-to-trough, net of inflation, during this period.”

By Howard Ruff
The Ruff Times

*****

We are living in interesting times. I personally have known (they have all passed on) several individuals who lived and experienced such times as Howard outlines.

Close to home, post Russian Revolution times experienced by many Manitoba Mennonites forced to flee Russia where they had been very successful farmers for decades. To a man they remembered wheel- barrows filled with Rubles that wouldn't buy a loaf of bread. Result of currency debasement. History covers the rest of that story.

Can you imagine the size of the pots in a no-limit hold-em game if anything close to comparable debasement happens?

You could win pots worth $USbillions!! (only to find the notes weren't even good toilet paper! Howard's observation, not mine.)

Food for thought, although not wished upon anyone!

RUF