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Message: Narmac

Hear, hear.

We should compile a list of steaming turd whoppers. Saudi financing. CRP and breast cancer phase 2's being registration enabling trials. Trial commencement dates. Hepalink paying half. The Covid phase 2 trial moving to Brazil. That's just off the top of my head.

Anyway. I don't doubt that the general strategy is as described, because they've run out of options. It's just more a question of whether it can be accomplished. And, in this case there's an external backstop control: Hepalink has given 2 years. That gives until May 2026 for Zenith to close a deal.

Given that trial data will only improve over time and that this will both facilitate a deal and increase an eventual deal value, this is the timeline I think is realistic for a Zenith deal for the "deal on offer". This means that I don't think that BOM2 or PCC will commence until 2026 or later.

This is based on at least the following assumptions:

  1. That the Zenith phase 2 data for prostate cancer and nut carcinoma is good, and will continue to be good. Much of what we have is only Don's promises thus far for in-progress trials - so, nothing really, and probably selective disclosure - and there have been no posters or publications since 2022, at least on the website.
  2. The trials will generally continue on schedule or at least have sufficient data available to make such a deal possible.
  3. That Hepalink isn't willing to extend the deadline for payment further. They might be.

It is possible that Zenith can sell 20% of its apabetalone royalty in the meantime, but something about that option tells me this was more diversion. I don't think it's as valuable as Don makes it out to be when the whole company is worth a fraction of that value. Just my hunch. Maybe someone is willing to pay something if RVX can commit to starting the trial sooner. I don't know but I'm not counting on it.

All just my opinion.

 

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