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Message: Re: MD&A out
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Dec 13, 2018 06:41PM
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Dec 13, 2018 08:03PM
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Dec 13, 2018 09:03PM
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Dec 14, 2018 11:35AM

narmac - I never recall hearing that this trial would be completed by Dec 2017, ever. The most aggressive would have been the end of Dec 2018. Dosing started 11 Nov 2015. If the average time in the trial as Bear has pointed out numerous times is 18 months, it would be absolutely impossible for an end of 2017 finish. If you truly believe we were going to be finished Dec 2017 then you and I heard very different things. 

Financing - Having Eastern Capital not refinance the C$50 millionish loan put the company in scramble mode. There was a lot of dancing that took place behind the curtain that most could never imagine but it got done. That situation got ironed out but pushed recruiting back half a year or so. A push back of six months is not the end of the world, however when you combine that with what seems to be a drug that seems to be working extremely well then you and I as shareholders get frustrated as all heck. We want that news now whether it was a realistic expectation or not. Eastern may come back on side at some point we just don't know that. They did participate in the last Zenith financing so we do know the line of communication is not completely closed. Hepalink's investment in RVX is now worth around a quarter of a billion dollars. That's a lot of incentive for them to help in any way they can, to raise money or bring in another partner.

The good news here is that the trial is taking longer than what we expected. The bad news is that the trial is taking longer than what we expected.

For what it's worth IMO it will take longer than 4 to 6 weeks for follow-up of this trial as all patients will be dosed to the end. That is a dramatic change from the original design that would have had dribs and drabs of patients completing dosing in the final days of the trial. Looking forward, I'm expecting full data to be an additional 4 to 6 weeks longer than what they originally planned. I will be happy to be wrong about that.

I do recall reading something a few years ago that outline an April/May 2019 conclusion to this trial and remember scratching my head about it at the time. For the life of me I can not find where I saw that but believe it was before the first person was dosed.

Its a bummer that we will be eating hotdogs again this Christmas but I don't believe for a minute that it's the end of the world.

All IMO, dyodd.

tada

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Dec 14, 2018 01:55PM
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