I read through the Jan 16th Marcel Wijma (Van Leewenhoek) valuation update.

Pages 29 to 31 have some very helpful probabilities related to the likelihood of FDA approval (LOA) for various drugs depending of the trial phase they are in. This information comes from a large data base.

Wijma increased the apabetalone LOA from 46% in 2016 to 55% currently resulting in a NPV of $14.25/share ($14.75 quoted on a different page) based on the stage the trial is at and other factors.

So I remember when Wijma last reported that posters pointed out that these are paid reports. The disclaimer says Van Leewenhoek/Wijma do not hold shares in the companies they report on. 

As I recall the Beacon analysis put the RVX NPV at around $8.50. As I understand it Beacon is not paid by RVX but it represents institutional investors (and this implies to me that their report better have some solid meat on it's bones or they won't be in business). After the Beacon report there seemed to be a significant increase in buying activity for a period of time.

Anyway, my first superficial thought was that if RVX paid Wijma for an update based on the current trial status it certainly did not have an immediate impact on what I am calling the "Don Discount Factor" and in fact it increased the discount from roughly $6 based on Beacon to $12 based on Wijma.

Don has his work cut out for himself to bring the share price anyware even close to the lower (and presumably more objective) Beacon NPV. I hope that as Don flits about the world he has this issue in mind. Of course the FA and trial funding might light a fire in terms of demand.

Anybody have any thoughts on this?

Thanks.

Toinv