Re: Up isn't always good...and Down isn't always bad
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 27, 2017 10:54AM
Led,
I think what you are referring to is the valuations of the various CETP inhibitors. This is kind of an outdated/unfair comparison.
Outdated comparison because at the time, HDL raising therapies were all the rage and there was a lot of clinical/market excitement about this. Various CETP inhibitors had smooth sailing through clinical trials and I think those valuations were hypotheticals in case these CETP inhibitors proved effective in cardiovascular outcomes trials (CVOT) and were approved for use. So the bubble of those hypothetical valuations is now popped.......CETP inhibitors have disappointed big time in the CVOT trials. Of course, we are still awaiting for the numbers from the anacetrapib/REVEAL study.....I think ESC 2017 in August is when we will see those.
Unfair comparison because 1) RVX-208/apabetalone has not exactly sailed smoothly through Phase 2 trials; 2) Unlike CETP inhibitors that target a single enzyme, BET inhibitors have far reaching transcriptional effects; 3) because of #2, the safety/long-term effects of RVX-208 are unknown; 4) similar to #2 and #3, RVX-208 is a first in class drug and epigenetic therapies in general have a long way to go to prove themselves clinically; 5) there is a fog around the Resverlogix loan/financing situation right now.
I think our best comparison right now is Esperion with their bempedoic acid/ETC-1002. They are in the cardio space (albeit, LDL lowering) with a novel drug.......smooth sailing in Phase 2 and now in various Phase 3 trials that start to read out topline data in 2018. They have funds on hand to complete all of their ongoing Phase 3 studies. Their market cap is about 1 billion USD right now. Taking all that into consideration.....I think a fair valuation of RVX right now lies somewhere between current RVX and ESPR market caps......but the pending futility analysis and fog around the loan/financing is surely holding it closer to the former.
BearDownAZ