Narmac

Even after the futility analysis, if successful, BDAZ has shown us examples of trials that have failed after they pasted their FA. It's all very high risk as we all know but this type of investment can pay off big. That is what this game is about.

The risks are on both the business and the science sides. Who knows what the dominant shareholders will do when things continue to develop?

The science seems to be continuing to progress and FDA support is a very positive sign. Therefore, I have no doubt about financing. The science signs have been positive ever since the post hocs on ASSURE. However, we know virtually nothing about 3 point MACE and apabetalone. We do know that the patient population has been significantly refined to patients with DM, CVD and low HDL and this will help. And we know the trial has been sufficiently powered(statistically) and that at 175 events (hope I am correct on this) a decision could be made to increase the number of required events (increasing the statistical power) and hence avoiding the experience of ASSURE (wrong end point and under powered statistically).

We also know the steering committee members are highly qualified scientists. This to me implies that their is serious consideration being given to this science (epigenetics).

In terms of the valuation of the company we've seen estimates of the market size and the price of apabetalone relative to other drugs and all seems very favourable. The market is big and growing. Price points seem well within payer support levels. So the pickup could be good particularly since apabetalone is unique and has no direct competitors.

The so called paid analysts put prices on the current vale of a share between $5.60 and $12 as I recall.

If BoM succeeds I think it would be fair to say RVX has breakthrough science. While CRSPR (accurate gene splicing) gets all of the press it has no successes and there are also many ethical issues related altering genes that get passed on to future generations. So at least in the area of CVD apabetalone may be unique.

One poster on the medical side (apologies I can't remember who) indicated that if BETonMACE is successful it could become one of the standard of care drugs in the cocktail of drugs issued in ERs.

One very obvious perception that just struck me (I'm not very smart) is that BoM is based on an end point of time to first event of 3 point MACE (on very sick people). Therefore it seems to be a drug that can lengthen life and perhaps improve the quality of life for people with DM, low HDL and CVD. Obviously this is a worthy objective but it is not cure. It seems to be like palliative care. Keep these people living longer and perhaps improve their quality of life. This objective seems to be similar to the zen3694 trial...to extend life but not fix the fundamental problem. It's very important but not a cure. 

People on statins seem to be on statins through their lives. I wonder if this is the case for apabetalone? If so it seems good economically for RVX. If this drug is adjusting and compensating for some fundamental defficiencies in these people's genetics and it works...great. Much of DM from what I read is lifestyle based...over weight, poor dietes, little exercise. What a wonderful and growing market.

Anyway, I'm just getting thoughts off my mind. All of the signs are positive. There are many companies that could buy out RVX but I do not believe (from being in this for 8+ years) that this will go cheap. He knows what he has and he will wait. He has no reason to sell cheap and he said when spinco was created it's all there to reward the hard working poeple in these companies.

Cheers

Toinv