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Message: Re: More Forest News

Feb 11, 2009 07:34AM

Re: More Forest News

posted on Feb 11, 2009 11:56AM

Well the thing is, that isn't good business practice and I highly doubt they would do that.

Second, management owns 15% of the company, and a huge percentage by institutional investors. Sprott owns 25 million shares around $1.50-2 (even bought at around $3 as they mentioned on BNN)...and they are long term holders because they believe in the play big time (they were the ones who bought timminco at around $3 and waitied until it hit a lot higher high's of around $30 to start selling)...so what makes you think management, retail and instutional investors would sell at discount prices. Management didn't sell a single share when it hit $6+, not one in that run up, why would they at these depressed prices...and to add to that point is that Talisman produced just as good results with there land a huge distance away, adding more credibility to the play and spending more)...so doesn't make sense for anyone to sell.

Second, even if Forest put in a bid, you can bet Talisman, the much bigger of the two, would easily win that battle and furthermore, cause others to start jumping in.

Forest can do all they want to delay in hopes of undermining the play to the public(if that's there goal..not saying it is though), but Talisman already set out their 2009 plan and the expenditures for the Utica are high they specifically mention they will prepare it for next year.

And to answer your first thought. Sure they are hitting big wells everywhere, which is increasing production...but this only adds to the Utica being more favorable. If prices drop to much, TONS of shale plays like the Barnett for one will stop being drilled on and companies will only drill were profitable, if they have that opportunity (ie Quebec for one). Demand will pick up again...it's all supply demand. But when you have many shale plays and low prices, it will but pressure back on the upside once numbers start to come in for inventories that are dipping lower and lower. Price won't fall forever, it's impossible. So QEC at the moment is positioned in a great place to become a gas producer as compared with other areas.

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Feb 12, 2009 06:58AM

Feb 12, 2009 10:58AM

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Feb 12, 2009 02:35PM
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Feb 12, 2009 02:55PM

JQ
Feb 13, 2009 06:12AM
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Feb 13, 2009 07:37AM
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