Re: TIME WINDOW
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 09, 2008 02:54PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
It's just in panic mode...but despite the 500pt drop, we only went down 7 cents, and that was after being up to $1.46...so I think more and more buyers are buying based on value then trading it in regards to the tsx...a lot of buyers, anon was in for the biggest net buyer and Dundee with GMP etc...most sellers were retail, such as TD, but there we also a lot of TD buyers today, so retail investors are jumping in. Many many shares accumulated by the institutional investors and they're waiting...the difference from last run up imo, with the results we expect, is that there aren't as many shares avaliable as there were last time with more institutions holding and retail holding, and shorters won't dare try to mess with it, because we're talking results that are starting to take speculation out of it...even though we've had great results already to take some spec. out of it. It's all about momentum, and confidence, and once the markets turn around coupled with good results, we can just as easily get back to higher levels...this time around it might take us a little longer to get up, because people who have bought higher, might sell to break even because they don't want to risk it going down and the general markets being to bad before...memories of these days don't go away that quickly...BUT, with that said, with results that are favorable, we're really in the drivers seat then and odds are we're headed a lot higher...more coverage as well.
This panic selling is ridiculous lol.....I was looking at forest oil today...think of it this way. Back in 2005, they were trading at around $52...Back then, they had way less reserves, oil price of $50, NG must have $4-5 if not less.....today, world demand for oil is higher, price is $85 and will average higher than this according to many analysts of listened to, their reserves are way higher, new discovery in the makings, NG will probably stay above $6...average $8-10 according to analysts....and today they are trading at $27!!!! Explain that to me ahahah??
The credit will unfreeze eventually because the things the feds have done will take some time to get into the system and not to mention the bottom is getting near...don't know where it is, but it's got to me pretty close...so it's just a matter of time.
Never have I seen panic like this, nor will I ever in my lifetime, because this credit/mortgage crisis will likely never happen again if governments and banks learn from their mistakes.
I looked on reuters today for qec's institutional holdings, and its up about a million more shares, 3 more new buyers taking positions...
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stock...
sometimes the site updates, but goes back to old info when you go back, don't know what their problem is, but don't worry...if you keep going back, you'll eventually catch it with the right info.
Anywho...I read an article on the Barnett shale...
http://www.tudorpickering.com/pdfs/T...
If you read into it, in the core area, so the most perspective, their vertical flow rates on average are about 650mcf/d, and the Tier1 horizontals in the core area are about 1.5mmcf/d...there Tier2 Non-core horizontals are 900mcf/d...and there economics are a lot worse than ours, with quebec, less royalty, +1 to NYMEX while they are -1 to -1.50...which means that it does make sense to see 1mmcf/d that Jason said to make it economic, but with horizontals, we can expect to get higher rates...and look at our initial flow rates, we are doing very well achieving 1mmcf/d with forest and 800mcf/d with Talisman for the verticals...and for sustained periods of time. So it is nice to see the we are on track and the economics helping us out.
One thing to remember, is that it took the Barnett players around 10 years I read, to master the drilling....we on the other hand have been doing quite well with both majors in the drilling thus far, so as we keep drilling, I'm sure the more wells we do, the better understanding and hopefully success we'll have.
Rocco