Re: OT - Solar stocks and such things
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 05, 2007 07:15PM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
I find the technical side more my thing, tho I don't get too deep into Bollinger bands etc. I know you are big into the DD... I must say I go much shallower than you. Maybe when I mature I will do more! My feeling is to truly understand SPWR, I would have to go so deep looking at where they are doing projects, if they have future contracts, if they have future supply, what their management history is.... I would be overwhelmed and find as many reasons to doubt the company as like it. Part of mytheory is for a stock to jump to new highs on good volume, the funds have to be buying, and they have done more and better DD than I will ever do.
My strategy (again, much from O'Neil) boils down to this:
1) are they a leader in a sector that is hot?
2)Are their earnings growing consistantly (up 25% per quarter), prefferably with little debt?
3)have they formed a good base and then hit a new high on good volume?
If yes... BUY! Then be prepared to sell if it drops 10%, and once it gains 20% start following it with a trailing stop on at least part of the investment.
I also like Peter Lynch's philosophies, including "if you like the store, chances are you'll love the stock" I recently bought Tim Hortons to make it one of my biggest holdings, when it made a new high. Ever seen a Tims that is dead? I think they will succeed in expanding into the US, and earnings and SP will grow with it while they pay all the bills from us Cdns. I think Lululemon has potential like that too.
My sleeper solar stock is TSL. I have hung on when I shouldn't, bought more when it dropped (which I normally don't do) and am ahead on it. If it can climb to a new high, it will be very strong, having a very conservative PE for this sector (33). $70 seems to be a tough wall, but if it breaks through...
When you think about solar, think of the sun belt states and similar climes around the world, when their energy consumption due to AC etc spikes through the day, right when those panels are producing. A house with it's own panel and a utility with 10,000 of them will help keep energy costs under control in a high priced energy future. The gov't has never taxed sunlight, and nobody protests over a solar panel or a thousand of them. Also, the developing world could use it to bypass costly infrastructure to power villages etc. it is a hot sector today,and has the potential to be big for decades to come.
As I said before ASTI is my biggest solar and if I wouldnt have traded some shares away coulda been bigger. With flexible roll out type of solar "panels" they could be made to cover existing buildings, car roofs (think of that possibility!) etc. No need for silicon is a help too. If you are looking to the future, look at ASTI. Maybe when KXL sells out to Barrick for 60 bucks a share, you can triple that money with ASTI!