Valuation
posted on
Jan 18, 2010 07:28PM
Creating shareholder wealth by advancing gold projects through the exploration and mine development cycle.
I was crunching some numbers trying to see what the true value of KXL should be and the potential for us to jump in SP is pretty insane actually. I believe we're very undervalued right now because of the tough markets and the few bumps we've hit along the road which set us back. That will change this year I'm fairly sure of that, it's also why I put my money where my mouth is and I've picked up 40k shares in the past 2 months. (and just to be clear, I'm not a rich man who can throw $20k around)
Our current market cap is just over $50 million but we have nearly $30 million in raw cash. So nearly 2/3 of the SP reflects just the cash alone.
Then you throw in the Golden Mile which I'm assuming has somewhere in the neighbourhood of 300k-1.5m oz -- and that’s only what they have explored so far. They could easily stumble onto a couple million oz section down deep just like Red Lake (that’s the lottery ticket we're all hoping for).....but back to what we actually have at this time...
Let’s be VERY conservative and say they can make a profit of $350/oz on 300k oz from the GM. You're still talking $105m (or $0.85c /share) and I think that's ridiculously conservative and doesn't even cover any of the other prospects.
Then let’s say with Milestone they have a bulk mineable deposit which only contains even 50k oz (I'd bet more however) -- they're going to make huge profit margins on that because you basically just need to drive a backhoe onto the property and scoop the gold out. So let's say they can make $500/oz profit on the 50k oz that’s another 2.5m (or an easy .20c / share more).
Don't forget I have not even mentioned any of the other dozen gold prospects or the Uranium or Nickel projects or the fact that they will most likely expand the GM once they start drilling under the lake. Also notice how gold has been fairly consistently over $1000 and I'm saying $500 profit on an open pit situation?
When in reality it could potentially be much more if they decide to mine it themselves for cash flow.
So I'd very conservatively say that we should be sitting around the $1.15-1.30 mark right now and that’s with a negative sentiment. I'm pretty sure it's only a matter of time before we have a nice rebound and are back over $1.
Don't get me wrong, I believe we'll be worth much more than $1/share as all the results start coming in but that’s just what I think we're worth at this exact moment (if the resource estimate turns out to have around 300k ounces at just the Golden Mile). Anything above that and all bets are off, we could see the north side of $1 by March if that’s the case.
Just some food for thought, if anyone wants to rip my numbers apart or put in their 2 cents please feel free.
P.S - Thanks very much for all your efforts Cedar, you're awesome! Also thanks to everyone else for such good contributions! I really missed coming to this board while I was on KXL vacation this past year in that asylum :D haha.
Cheers,
Gamblor.