Your estimates concurs with mine. BK.

current market compared to great depression.

Having fun with numbers...

IF this is another great depression and..

If past is prologue, we are almost done dropping except for one more swift descent then recovery. We have dropped at extreme speed compared to the depression so I would expect our recovery would be at extreme speed as well.

The depression:

YEAR DOW

1923 100 (previous low at start of climb)
1929 380 (+ 380%)
1932 42 ( THE LOW - 58% of original. A very FAST drop then recovery to 75)
1932 75 ( - 25 % of original 100)
1937 187 ( + 187% of 100)

Recent history:

2003 8,000 (previous low at start of climb, also low in 1997)
2007 14,000 (+ 180%)
2008 8,214 (Today 11/19/08)
2008? 5,920 ( THE LOW -24% [.5 *58%] of original, fast drop then recovery to 7,000 )
2009-10? 7,000 ( -12.5% [.5 * 25%] of original 8,000 )
2009-10? 15,440 ( + 93% [.5 *187%] of original low )

Can you wait until 2010? It will take nerves of steel, to ride this out. Imagine though if your money were in a savings account. Would you feel better about your prospects? In 2 years your savings will be worth less than it is today. If you can take the dips the payoff will be much higher.

And here is a quote of note many Americans would not believe possible today:

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933 (gold confiscation)