Re: Facts and thoughts
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 21, 2023 11:45PM
I am long, and aside from this cluster**ck of a money raise, nothing has changed in my long term view. We always knew there would be future dilution as POET pivoted to a high-volume supplier from an R&D company. The timing could not have been worse, with capital markets spooked in various sectors and rates for personal finance and commercial properties bordering on usery or even loan sharking.
When that happens, the company will sell stuff, make money, and get properly valued. Due to this ugly period, it may take longer to go up in value to match revenues and profits, but if so, it will just be undervalued for some time. I never intended to sell until it was at least $50.00 a share, and I figured we'd be at 50-60 million shares outstanding. Now, that may be 70-80 million, depending on how this gets priced and how many units they sell. Maybe more, let's call it 100M shares. That's a five-billion market cap, which is not insane if we sell a billion dollars worth of light sources and other Optical Interposer enabled goodies. I expect it to go on from there.
By then, we should see a few faces changed, as Suresh surely will have learned something from this and responded appropriately.
I may be wrong about the dilution, as the capital needs may not be so intensive. We use a foundry model, POET gets paid for designing the tech into various applications (non-recurring engineering), and the module partnership we expect may resemble the Sanan deal, with no capital needed from POET. Unless Suresh wants a major raise to step on the gas for some sector that presents an opportunity or to belly up with a partner with some wallet to make it on good terms, then the cash raise need not be too large.
If you need money now or soon, POET has failed you miserably. If you are genuinely long, this will be an ugly memory and a lesson about pre-revenue stocks. I truly wish I had held my enthusiasm in check, bought an interesting pilot position, and waited for more substantial success. I would not hesitate to buy into this mess right now.
Some answers from management would be appreciated. They seem to be gagged and bound; maybe we'll understand better soon.