Re: As investors, we should not fear the China connection to Poet
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 26, 2023 12:08AM
Thank you, POETMMc, for an alternate view of the Middle Kingdom. Certainly much has been written over the years about the "powerhouse" of the Chinese economy.
Sinophobia is indeed a factor in some of the criticisms levied against China, however that doesn't obfuscate or remove the genuine concerns for "foreign" JVs operating within the geopolitical confines of China nor does it remove some of the economic warts of China at the present time. Names like "Evergrande" and "Country Garden" are genuine topics of concern for the overall economic climate in China. The real estate crisis in China is not a contrived false news story fabricated by a Sinophobic Western press. The concern of many Western businesses presently operating within the borders of China in regards to possible arbitrary and significant limitations doesn't come from a false narrative about difficulties for business operating in China.
On the other perspective I was glad to see that you stated "I agree that POET needs to expand business partnerships in Europe and N. America".
Without demonizing China in the least I would agree with that perspective that you stated so well. Expanding business partnerships in Europe and North America for POET Technologies would seem to be a very wise business decision and such a decision doesn't undermine the existing Sanan JV already extant, it only serves as insurance against any future possible undesireable outcome that might occur when considering that the Sino-Western relationships may not be all peaches and cream and when taking under advisement past and present constraints and limitations operating on Sino-Western business enterprises, imagined and real.
Having reread your comment a second time it almost appears to be a textual creation from some point of time in the past by AmCham China, the American Chamber of Commerce in the People's Republic of China. It does impart a certain glowing prognostication for doing business in China. A successful partnership with a Chinese business entity should live up to that glowing projection if the normal business partnership relationship between a foreign and a Middle Kingdom business is not tipped in some way by either the CCP or a domestic economic pothole that is due to some wart on the face of the Chinese economy not shared by the past AmCham China positive projections.
Speaking of AmCham China, it should be noted that past more superlative statements about foreign-Chinese businesses might better be balanced with both the "Pro" and the "Con" views of AmCham China presently as stated in the AmCham China 2023 Business Report. Some favorable comments about doing business in China and some Caveats. See for yourself in the article linked below:
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/am-cham-2023-china-business-report-takeaways/
Your positive statement about past achievement of the Chinese economy is correct: "Consider that China has emerged as a formidable economic powerhouse. The country's rapid industrialization, infrastructure development, and massive labor force have fueled its ascent. This dominance is most prominently reflected in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is second only to that of the United States, with the gap narrowing over time."
So how could there be any fly in the ointment? I refer you back to the present AmCham China 2023 Report that gives support of both negative and positive factors. There are some definite Roses amongst some Thorns, a mixed bag.
Some articles, linked below, provide a different perspective on the miracle of the Chinese GDP. For your consideration:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/16/business/china-evergrande-country-garden.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-economy-real-estate-debt-bust-american-companies-2023-10
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/21/economy/china-economy-troubles-intl-hnk/index.html
A current Forbes article starts out with the cautionary paragraph:
"Washington has shown increasing levels of hostility toward Beijing. Leadership in European Union (EU) has adopted Washington’s tone, if a bit less strident. In the United States talk increasingly includes the phrase “de-couple from China.” The Europeans prefer the word “de-risk,” but it comes to the same thing. Independently and for their own purposes, American and European businesses are moving in the same direction as their governments, less in deference to the authorities and more because of what is happening in China. This certainly is the message coming out of three important businessgroups: the U.S.-China Business Council, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, and the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.
All three business groups report a radical and negative change in sentiment among their members toward doing business in China. "
An interesting comment comes from Mr. Brilliant of Dentons Global Advisors-ASG, who was previously the executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
“With the degree of uncertainty hanging over China’s economic direction, it would be malpractice for corporate executives to stand pat”
Now to be fair, the article that ends with the quote from Mr. Brilliant is not in the least Sinophobic nor does it "demonize" the prospect of Western businesses operating in concert with Chinese partners in China and/or continuing existing JV partnerships, such as the existing POET/Sanan partnership. It does point out, however, some pot holes in the road that should at least be kept in mind by existing Western companies operating in China and for those contemplating new epeditions within the Middle Kingdom.
See the article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/business/china-us-business.html
In summary, there are existing and potential difficulties for any Western/China business entity planned or presently operating in China. This does not mean that we throw out the baby with the bath water, it only means that deliberate consideration of both negative and positive factors should be cognizant to any Western buisness operating in the Middle Kingdom and that there is still wisdom in the phrase:
"Don't put all your chickens in one place to hatch"
Thanks, POETMMc, for your perspective. I am not against seeing massive success of POET's JV with Sanan.
When going into an unknown pool to swim it is best to know how deep is the pool and what lies under the surface as possible dangers to avoid.
Most will interpret my remarks as being anti-POET/Sanan JV and there isn't much I can do to change that mischaracterization. It is what it is. I only wish well for the POET/Sanan JV.
And, especially, for the future of a North American based POET manufacturing facility.
Okiedo