People who have warrants and options in a company that has a known earnings history and projected earnings track record likely behave differently than holders of warrants in companies like POET that have little earnings track record. Release of NREs news etc are anticipated but can't be scheduled with any degree of certainty. As you point out as the time fuse burns your timing risk increases. Also a lot will depend on what they intend to do with the stocks/cash. Some option and warrant holders in established companies use their warrants and options as planned income exercising them on an annual basis because they know that they are likely getting more in the next performance period. POET is different and somewhat unique because of the nature and potential disruptive aspects of its products and the timing of the critical news and NRE.