My take on warrant holders' behaviour
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 21, 2015 01:29PM
Indeed, Turr, and if you are a warrant holder without having enough money to exercise your warrants, you'd have to sell some of your (POET) shares. This is quite challenging since there is virtually no demand for reasons I explained recently.
Now what could you do to max out your warrants? You could speculate that BIG news will come out before your warrants expire, so you could sit and wait until that news come. If and when that happens, demand will rise out of a sudden, the share price will explode and you won't have any problems to sell some of your shares and exercise your warrants. That's the best case scenario.
However, your dilemma is that you cannot be sure whether those news will really come before expiry. And with each day that passes without news you are getting more and more nervous and more and more tempted to no longer wait and sell immediately. You are aware that if you don't sell, others will still do so, as can be seen. They will drive the share price further down leaving you the rest, i.e. an even lower share price. On the other hand, if you sell now, you are giving up all your hope for a timely news release. Today you might get more money for your shares than tomorrow, but who knows, perhaps that news release is published the day after tomorrow – and you sold too early. Too bad!
I believe there's a whole spectrum of warrant holders with different risk profiles and expectations. On one end of the spectrum are the speculative ones who will wait for news until the very last day, if needed – bearing the risk that news won't come leading to a culminating selling pressure which could even render their warrants worthless. At the other end of the spectrum are the more conservatives folks who have already sold and exercised their warrants. Yes, it's a spectrum, and each trading day some of the remaining warrant holders will sell, i.e. those with the least readiness to assume a risk. This will continue until either the warrants expire or THE news is released – whichever comes first.
Disclaimer: I am neither a warrant holder nor will I sell my shares.