Questions for the Board
posted on
Sep 22, 2013 07:34PM
1) How long has POET been in 'show me' mode?
I'm toying with a theory that says we've been sparkling the eyes of someone big since Q1.
POET has been adding and rearranging MS since Q1 and this makes me think the recent confirmation that POET was "asked" to perform the 100nm shrink could also have been true for the microwave MS.
If this is reasonable, I wonder if there could even be more than one company waiting for POET to show and prove. On one hand, the RF/microwave MS was a PET development, and both MS6 & new MS8 are too. It could be that one company needs a radio combined with a fast CMOS replacement. It could also be that one company needs the radio, while another needs the fast logic. Combine this idea with the long blackout and the ease with which POET has been able to add knowledgeable and renowned industry veterans since Q1 and I think there is a pretty compeling case for willing partners on the sideline since Q1.
Bottom line is that POET has announced that they want to form a PDA. I don't think that they would make an announcement unless they were fairly certain a PDA would materialize. I believe this simply because POET didn't have to announce their intentions. They could just as well have kept their mouths shut.
2) Are we really taking a licensing approach over a full sale scenario?
Finally, I'd also like to comment on one more possible misconception. Many of us have assumed that POET has changed their plan since delivering the investor presentation in Q1, switching from a full sale to a licensing model. Some posters, cynically, and without a shred of evidence, believe that POET never intended to sell the company but said so only to fill a PP. While it is possible a change of heart led to a change in strategy, it's also interesting to note that the most recent substantive NR regarding the PDA & 100nm is still compatible with a total buyout scenario. In fact, the PDA could actually be a consortium/syndicate arranged by POET as per the Toronto meeting, and not a group of licensees. The only mention of licensing in that NR describes a POET ecosystem for the proliferation of licensed designs. So perhaps what is being described is the sale of POET to a syndicate who will in turn work with Taylor to continue developing devices for licensing to non-syndicate companies. This would take place after we shareholders have had our liquidity event, with the balance of the value of POET to be realized by the consortium partners.