Rant about value and valuing. O.T.???
posted on
Mar 11, 2013 11:26AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
There is what a company is worth and then there is what others are willing to pay for it (i.e.market price). I argue that the two are not the same and often as in present time are far apart.
Using Noront as example (don't ask why = just me talking to myself, as I get older I tend to do that now heh heh).
Noront's true value is all of it's physical assets, including money in the bank, Minus it's debt.
Some could also say that the employees of the company are an asset but I say that is very flexible and sometimes a detriment.
Now to market value:
That is the above 'True' value minus all impediments in today's time that impede a realization of that true value.
Huh? What impediments, What are you talking about? ( Again, just my other persona responding, just ignore).
1. Well lack of sufficient infrastructure is a serious impediment to that realization.
2. The native blockade and possible repeat of same is another. How about natives asking for a cut in form of royalty for land use etc.
3. Lethargy of governments and regulators.
4. Swampy and mosquito laden north?
5. World economy and devaluing of metals.
I could go on but I could be called another 'Wes on our case' and we all know the history and background of Noront.
Soooo, what is this company really worth?
Not so very long ago Eagles's nickel ore alone was valued at 12 billion dollars ( Working from vague memory here so give me some slack ).
Our chromite I believe was of the order of several billion more.
Our land claims with other ores in them right now are next to worthless by comparison to the above two figures.
Let me just say that Noront has assets ( known and likely) of at least 20 billion dollars. I add a few billion for what the land claims will be worth in my life time.
So why is the share price near 30 cents?
Well grasshopper, now we are at the heart of the matter which are the impediments I mentioned above.
True value means little if propaganda, hysteria and market manipulation are at play.
Ok, getting back to some numbers because most of the above is just talk.
The nickel ore after all the building and operating to extract the metals should yeald about half as clear profit, that is 6 billion $s.
Chromite is not nearly as profitable. Half the money would be sunk into operating costs and related espenses. I base that comparison on a dollar spent on nickel we get 5 to 6 back but same dollar on chromite gets us a bit more than a dollar back as profit.
Let me just say that we end up with 8 billion dollars as income after infrastructure, royalties, taxes and some graft to locals etc.
When all is well and done our shares outstanding will be 300 million if not more.
That means about $26 per share.
But we are valued NOW at almost 26 cents a share!
So we are valued at ONE Percent of our true worth ( early explorer type) when we should be valued at least at 5% level ( advanced explorer) and more realistically at 10% (Feasibility stage ready for financing and construction).
All those impediments are trumping our true value.
AND we are worth what some are willing to buy/sell for Now instead of tomorrow.
Ability to raise funds has little to do with it. Paying back of principal with interest has everything to do with it. You would think that financiers would look at the true value and jump, but these are very cautious times for financings.
I do not expect a hostile offer of a bit above a buck. They can go and take a hike in some swamps with mosquitos and black bears.
All this ranting does not help much does it?