PM physical inventories disappearing as prices fall? What's up?
posted on
Aug 16, 2008 08:41AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Good Morning NOT With the BS going on in the PM market, I am looking forward to Windfall news more and more. We are fortunate to have great potential in our reserves and in politically safe jurisdictions in the world. Although I really feel the mcfaulds project is our number one value driver... Windfall's gold will become more and more front and center with what is going on in the world. As they say, "gold is money." I have been reading a fair amount on what is happening in the commodity precious metals market recently and thought I would share a few pieces. Although it is not specific to NOT, it relates due to the metals we are mining. I suspect many here also dabble in other metal juniors. A few days ago reading at Le Metropole Cafe it was noted that major dealers of physical gold and silver were selling out. My eyes shot off the page and I had to re read.... how could these physical inventories be selling out? Consider what happened this past week in the prices of gold, silver and platinum.... they have been pummelled... this usually implies mass selling out of holdings which would also imply there is plenty of supply to buy... and hence the price has fallen to try and reach an equilibrium level of supply and demand. I mentioned this peculiar situation to a few friends and they respond that of course the dealers are selling out, the price has become attractive. To which I respond, "wouldn't the price rebound if the dealers were selling out and demand was that great?" Something odd is going on in the metals market... physical inventory is disappearing.... yet paper or futures pricing of the PM's is falling... it seems the banks are having no problem issuing as much paper gold and silver as they want, yet, the physical inventory is not as easy to produce. See the note from Kitco this morning. IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products. Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults.
Perhaps we are entering a time where physical inventory is priced to a premium to certificates and futures... the implications are enormous... First, and most likely, a short squeeze reminiscent of the Hunt brothers silver run... second, realization that the powers that be have been suppressing these metals... third, a revaluation of compliant resource estimates values higher... junior companies will be revalued higher as their reserves will be given more value. This PM market smells of massive manipulation on behalf of the beneficiaries, bankers and governments... CPI in the US and Europe are at or near 20 year highs and gold isn't going ballistic... War in Georgia and gold isn't going ballistic.... Poland says they are OK putting a US missile defence system on Polish ground, to which the Russians respond something close to, " in the event of war the missile defence system will be one of the first targets Nuked." More massive bank right off's to come. I know many here are under water on there positions in NOT and many juniors. The hour seems bleak but there are many fundamental reasons these juniors shouldn't stay down. We are in a poor market in juniors, but, there are many catalysts that can turn this around... and remember, the summer doldrums are almost done. I may be off in thinking all is not lost. There is hope. To all NOT shareholders, you have come this far... not financial advise, due your own dd regards cwallace