"what if it's hedged with a short position overseas"

Well let's see, that  means that the "big accumulator" is just looking to break even, shares wise, by covering his short position. So how does this make things look bright for the retail investor. You've posted that you think someone is accumulating, giving the impression that they are doing so because they think the price is going to go up. If someone is short and is simply covering their short position, they don't necessarily care if the price is going to go up until they get their short position covered as they have no potential for profiting from a rising share price.