Re: Time to vent. Moxa, this share price is an absolute scream! - Moxa
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 12, 2007 10:03AM
While I absolutely agree that warrant conversion can happen at a higher PPS, as in my last post, warrant retirement (through PTSC buyout) does have a much better probability of happening at the current PPS than at $2-3.
Sorry to harp, but I've wrapped my head around the idea that S&L is compelled (based on improvement of mid/long term prospects without it hanging over) to get rid of the warrants ASAP. The evidence to this possibility lies in our trading pattern on news (and without). So if they opt to cooperate with PTSC towards this end, with PTSC about to receive (hopefully) a large sum, the time is extremely ripe, IMO. The warrants could easily (IMO) be gone in one fell swoop.
Considering the terms of the last S&L/PTSC agreement, PTSC could further compell S&L to cooperate by offering a premium. Not that I relish the thought, it would probably be worth it.
Drag in $20M from the NEC settlement (our half after expenses; a bit low ball), then pay S&L a 20% premium for retirement of all outstanding warrants (the numbers: $.575 X 1.2 = ~$.70; $.70 X ~25M warrants = $17.5M). Could be easily done, and I could stomach that to better assure PPS appreciation from here on out. And these numbers are intentionally off to the pessimist side. A 20% premium is pretty tall, and $20M from NEC is pretty short, IMO. But you get the drift.....give it a couple/few of weeks; and then I'll be wailing by your side if it doesn't happen!
With the warrants out of the (along with, hopefully, the Fish dispute), the PR effort could finally get under way. I still suspect that it isn't because of possible posturing for the above.
If my speculation ends up holding any water, it'll be time to congratulate Mr. Pohl and the Board.
And, of course, I KNOW nuttin'!
SGE