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Message: Re: Updated Share Price Model

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Feb 19, 2013 06:56PM

Bob,

"Why do you think that 10% of the T2 segment that is currently on no medication will adopt Afrezza?I have been assuming that they could not afford treatment or that their reasons for not treating themselves would also apply to Afrezza."

The number is purely a guess - and I hope it will be even larger, but I have to assume it is non-zero. You raise a very good point - why people don't take any form of medication to treat their diabetes. The answer is multifactorial - here's some of the big reasons I can think of off the top of my head. I've also included my ideas why Afrezza will put at least a dent in some of them.

No insurance or can't afford. Currently ~ 15% of the population does not have some form of health insurance. Obamacare aims to shrink that number. Then you have copays etc - but I believe Afrezza will be price competitive and will not be in the highest tier.

Many newly diagnosed T2s often try diet and exercise first. But keep in mind, poor lifestyle choices often led to their condition, and drastic changes must be made to control it. Most of this population usually ends up on some form of medication.

Many people don't know they have diabetes...

And then we have the population that is noncompliant or in denial as to the consequences of untreated disease. Many of these, you may never convert. But for a small number, the ease of use and portability might make a difference.

So all in all, very difficult to come up with a number for this motley group. I'm just saying that at least a few will be converts.

As always, great discussion from you!

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