Re: Nice Spot Price Move
posted on
Feb 21, 2008 01:12PM
Producing Mines and "state-of-the-art" Mill
"Your assertion that future production of nickel by Liberty Mines is currently priced into the stock is also nonsense. Liberty is barely producting concentrate compared to where it will be in the fall but between now and then we will not only increase production by about seven fold but Liberty will also be posting NI43-101's for each of the three mines, continuing to do stepout drilling and more exploration drilling on their sevearl properties. Do you really think that the future production is priced into the stock? Then you don't know much about Liberty Mines or you're trying to keep the price depressed for whatever reason."
Or Liberty could be bought out... or some or all of the nickel could prove to be economically unviable to extract... or a large share issuance could dilute our position... these are big questions that are depressing our share price.
We ooze with optimism, and so we should as proud shareholders, but we sometimes let our emotions (or personal agendas on share price direction) rule over logic.
Taking the Sept 2007 balance sheet figures:
$34m for building and equipment... about 40 cents per share. The market value of this is probably closer to $0.10-$0.20 (or less) if we had to liquidate, as most of this is fixed on our property.
$24m for properties and deferred exploration costs. 30 cents per share. Most of this is from Redwater, which should be largely recoverable, but the costs sunk in to McWatters, McAra and Hart so far are going to be heavily discounted by the market. So maybe 10-20 cents of market valuation (at cost) for this item.
Current assets and liabilities are a wash, so no value there.
So our shares are worth around 20-40 cents of recoverable assets if the company were to liquidate. The remaining dollar or so of share value is then a combination of expected future cash flow and speculation on future production (and thus more cash flow). And this leads me back to my statement which you challenged, saying that the market has not factored any future production in to the share price. In the end, we're left with a bunch of land, a used mill and hopefully a nice pile of cash. As to how much cash, well, that's a matter for massive debate, but this is what the marketplace is betting on, or against, and what is determining our current share price.
Perhaps the market value for future cash flow and production is far lower than you feel it should be, or want it to be, but like myself, we're pretty powerless to convince it otherwise. We just have to be patient and let time demonstrate the true value of this company. In the meantime, constructive debates can help us reach a certain level of comfort with the current share price and calm the many frayed nerves which seem to be plentiful right now. Presenting our educated, researched opinions here will hopefully help new investors see the true value of this company.