Hi DONTCRYFORME. I don't follow this gentleman's work so I can't speak for it's track record in predicting turn points. IMO the proprieter of cyclesman.com offers a more precise model for Gold than Erik McCurdy but I haven't followed him for quite a while. You could always check cyclesman.com website for his latest call for Gold but I believe one has to pay for the privilege. At any rate based on Erik's observations and interpretations, Gold may bottom any where from a few weeks to quite a few months if the May high was a Long Term top:

"Every long-term cycle high occurs in conjunction with an annual cycle translation change, so a failure to break out to new all-time highs during the next few months would be a potentially bearish sign. However, we are approaching the next Intermediate-Term Cycle Low (ITCL) and prices have formed a bullish consolidation pattern following the last Intermediate-Term Cycle High (ITCH)."

Erik's Intermediate Term cycles work seems to function best when combined with a ruler in hand. What I mean is that ultimately his model can verify a top or bottom is in place but only well *after* the event, when price crosses the dominant trendline. This reminds me somewhat of Elliott Waves where patterns of alternating highs and lows are most clearly recognizeable in hindsight.

Also "problematic" (for aspiring market timers like myself) with the model is the variable length of his IT cycles which vary a great deal, making it difficult to pin highs and lows with a higher rate of accuracy. This accounts for Erik offering several possible outcomes of where Gold is headed in the weeks ahead.

In short, I believe his model is not built with accuracy in mind while still offerring the reader valuable insight into possible outcomes based on historical patterns. I don't recall Jim Sinclair basing his cycles work on this guys recommendations. He follows models more closely based on Armstrong's work, but does acknowledge there are other models that also work to varying degrees, presumably this includes Mr McCurdy work. Bear in mind this is merely my own opinion based on a quick review of only a single article of this gentleman's cycles work.