What do you say about the cycle analysis as indicated in the link below?
Do I understand you right that your model does not coincide with this model, since you do not recognize the May 1 top as an ITCH?
According to the model below we might be forming the ITCL right where we are or at least over the next two weeks.
http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/06/25/jims-mailbox-727/