via USA Gold - From June 2011 - Seasonal Price Trends For Gold

Before the correction in gold prices in 2011, the outlook in the summer that year was that gold prices were merely going to continue to go up.

I wonder how the seasonal price trend looks from this same perspective now. Certainly during bull market years summer doldrums were not in the cards. If you exclude major corrections, then how would this 'erroneous' point of view measure up today?

Remember that gold prices had been in a lengthy skew period, after what appears to be a 'volatility smile' -type market structure. So now that this whole process is complete, and the market is in forward skew, summer doldrums are not in the cards anymore. If gold prices are up after the summer solstice, we're in summer, therefore not in a doldrums character of price development.

I'm thinking that this summer is similar to 2005, once the throwback over the continuation pattern was confirmed.

http://www.usagold.com/analysis/doldrums-2011.html

via INO.com - Aug 2016/Dec 2021 Spread

You might presume the market is in forward skew because spreads keep on widening. Intentional? Unintentional?

http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.Q16_Z21.E&v=d12&t=l&a=0&w=1

$Gold Daily

The daily gold chart shows confirmation over of the throwback by achieving a new high over a previous peak.

My guess right now is that a price development similar to February is set to occur.

http://schrts.co/WuLy1t

$TNX/!PRII Weekly

A very strong confirmation of the gold price trend aught to be the third moving average crossover of the 34-week EMA below the 89-week EMA, which seems imminent in the TNX/PRII Weekly chart. This indicator only updates after 7pm.

Once interest rates become so low that this ratio no longer becomes effective, then you might want to switch to TYX/PRII.

http://schrts.co/J5vEAo

$BPGDM Daily

Gold miners bullish percent index confirms that we are in a rally, but may also be indicating an interim top, or pause:

http://schrts.co/D3U3Ag

$SPTGD Weekly

The inverse correlation of SPTGD with the gold silver ratio is suggesting an interim top, though it might take several weeks for this indicator to complete:

http://schrts.co/zwmFYa

-F6